wolfie09

Our attention then turns to lake effect snow. Conditions will become marginally supportive tonight, then much more favorable on Wednesday as a strong cold front crosses the area. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise steadily Wednesday morning as cold air pours into the region, peaking at around 15K feet on both lakes. The most favorable setup will be for just a few hours right around the time of the cold frontal passage. During this time, deep synoptic scale moisture will be available through a deep mixed phase layer, supporting large dendrites. Furthermore, strong convergence along the advancing cold front will combine with developing lake generated bands of convergence to create a brief period of strong convergence along the long axis of both lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night boundary layer flow quickly veers to northwest, with heavier lake snow closely tied to upstream connections. CIPS analogs are keying in on relatively high chances of warning criteria snow east of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Off Lake Erie... Expect light, upslope snow showers through the first half of tonight with minor accumulations along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. By around midnight, boundary layer flow will back to the WSW, which should allow a band to consolidate along the shoreline from Chautauqua to southern Erie counties. This band may briefly make it as far north as the Buffalo southtowns and far southern Genesee County very briefly late tonight, before quickly moving back south again by 7AM Wednesday. A fairly strong band should briefly move southeast from southern Erie and Wyoming counties into the western Southern Tier as the lake band merges with the advancing cold front. This may drop some brief, heavy snowfall rates across the western Southern Tier Wednesday morning. The lake effect snow will then likely break up for a time from late morning through early afternoon following the passage of the cold front as boundary layer flow quickly veers more northwesterly. Following this brief lull, lake effect snow will re-organize as the upstream connection begins to develop to Lake Huron by late afternoon. This Lake Huron connection will initially set up from central and northern Chautauqua to western Cattaraugus late Wednesday afternoon. The band of heaviest snow should then move slowly southwestward as boundary layer flow continues to veer. This is a very complex scenario given all the band movement and the upstream connections. Warning criteria amounts will likely be closely tied to the upstream Lake Huron connection, making placement particularly difficult. Even so, the setup appears favorable for warning criteria amounts when the entire event is taken as a whole. Storm totals of 8-12 inches are expected, with a few locations possibly exceeding 12 inches if the Lake Huron connection stays in one spot long enough. With this in mind, we will go with a lake effect snow warning for Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with an advisory for southern Erie, Wyoming, and Allegany counties. Off Lake Ontario... Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario this evening across Wayne County. This area of snow will be relatively light given the marginal setup. The lake snow will then move quickly east into Oswego County late tonight, before weakening further at the east end of the lake by daybreak. Accumulations of 2-3 inches are possible tonight as this band moves east from Wayne to Oswego counties. Following a very brief lull around 10-12Z Wednesday, a band of snow will rapidly intensify over Lake Ontario as conditions improve with the approach of the cold front. Expect a band to rapidly intensify early to mid morning across central Jefferson County, then settle to the northern Tug Hill by late morning. The band may linger in this area for just a few hours, then progress quickly south across the rest of the Tug Hill region into Oswego County during the early afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance such as the WRFNMM, WRFARW, and high-res window of the Canadian RGEM suggest the band may max out in intensity briefly across the northern half of the Tug Hill mid to late morning, with snowfall rates possibly reaching 3-4 inches per hour briefly. This will be a short lived event, with the band moving rapidly south and weakening during the afternoon. Following this brief intense phase of lake effect snow, a band will move or re-develop at the southeast corner of the lake by mid afternoon across Wayne/N.Cayuga/S.Oswego counties. An upstream connection to Georgian Bay is expected to develop during this time frame. The combo Georgian Bay/Lake Ontario band will then move westward along the south shore of Lake Ontario later Wednesday afternoon and night as boundary layer flow veers more northwesterly with time. The Georgian Bay connection should break down later Wednesday night, with snow becoming light but still fairly widespread southeast of Lake Ontario. Given the above expectations, accumulations may reach 8-12 inches across the Tug Hill region Wednesday, with a few spots over a foot if the band maxes out and stalls for a few hours. Fluff factor should be ideal given the thermal profiles. After that, northwest flow will spread 4-6 inches along the south shore from Orleans to southern Oswego counties Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, including the Rochester area. Local warning amounts are not out of the question in this area if the Georgian Bay connection stalls for several hours. We will go with Lake Effect Snow Warnings for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties, primarily for the Tug Hill region Wednesday. This will be followed by advisories along the south shore from Orleans to Northern Cayuga counties including Rochester. Finally, between the main areas of lake effect snow the cold front will produce a few snow showers and snow squalls Wednesday morning across much of the region. A spray of Lake Huron snow showers is also likely across much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening, with relatively light accumulations away from the main lake effect areas. Blowing snow will be common Wednesday and Wednesday night with wind gusts up to 40 mph on the lake plains, and 30 mph farther inland

We could see our first below zero night Thursday or Friday, if we can clear out..

It's amazing all the crying done on this board when I should have double all your guys Snowfalls, do u hear me crying.. US avg 25" a year and we cry cause we only average 100

And what post would that be?

2 1/4" as of 12pm, precip rates starting to pick back up some.. Forecast was 2" today so anything more is a bonus..

Gfs also keeps light snow going most of the day like the NAM..

Multiple lows If u watch the hrrr it's consistently jumping north/south.. Doesn't know what to focus on lol

Could be a decent band along the front just south of Watertown..

Nam still has wrap around at 11 pm while the hrrr ends around 4pm lol

Lol

If we wanna get technical, surface doesn't even get above freezing on Xmas east of Ontario..

Little less than inch here, coming down pretty good right now, flake size has increased as well..

Boy 1.5" snow with nearly an inch liquid, worst ratios ever In all seriousness that's even higher than good ole kuchera had..

Filling in nicely, snow starting to pick up..

Probably about 1/2" down, light steady snow.. Radar looks pretty disorganized..

At least the models are showing a little activity today..Just miss the phase here..

If that HP was better positioned those reds would turn into blues.

The gfs has a Pacific system north of us traversing the country, which explains the warm up ahead of it and the cool down behind it.. Euro has that same system south with strong HP to our north.

Heaviest went from the south of us to our north lol

Nam not as far north as the hrrr..But it's decent..Rates gonna suck but it will add up.. Obviously the Nam can sometimes be overly wet lol

We'll see if it has any"legs" Takes 12+ hrs but we'll take it lol

Hrrr makes it pretty far north before it starts to jump around..

U know what's funny about this image? Practically the only precip we see over 11 days.

The widespread synoptic snow from Tuesday will be exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region early Tuesday evening. There will be at least some limited lake effect snow developing in the wake of this system as temperatures aloft become marginally cold enough. Off Lake Erie... Expect lake enhanced upslope snow showers to continue through the first half of the night across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills on northwest flow. Overnight, boundary layer flow will begin to back to the west and southwest ahead of the next system. This will allow the upslope snow showers to re-organize into a more shore parallel band along the Chautauqua County shoreline after midnight. This band will then move northward towards Buffalo by the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. The ever changing mode and location of the lake snow should keep accumulations relatively light, with 2-3 inches possible where the snow persists. Off Lake Ontario... Lake effect snow will organize in the evening over Wayne County in northwest flow. Boundary layer flow will then back to westerly overnight. This will push the lake effect snow eastward along the south shore of the lake from Wayne to Oswego counties. The steady movement of this band should also limit accumulations to the 2-3 inch range. A very interesting setup then evolves for Wednesday. A very strong and sharp mid level trough will move southeast across Ontario, reaching New England Wednesday night. Despite the closed off 500MB low, this system will remain very progressive. An associated cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday morning. The cold front will combine with pre-existing lake effect snow bands to produce a brief burst of heavy lake effect snow east of the lakes, and raise the possibility of fast moving snow squalls even inland from the immediate lake effect areas. Off Lake Erie... Expect the band of lake snow to briefly make it up to about Buffalo and Batavia. Note, this idea is north of most of the high resolution model guidance, which often has a notable southward bias in these situations. This will occur right during the morning commute. The cold front will then capture the lake band and drive it rapidly south and east through the western Southern Tier from mid morning through midday. The rapid band movement during this time should keep accumulations in the advisory range, even if the snow becomes heavy. Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches on average for Wednesday where the bands persist the longest. Late Wednesday and Wednesday night boundary layer flow continues to veer to the northwest. This will carry the lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier, primarily Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties. Mesoscale model guidance suggests an upstream connection to Lake Huron will develop and enhance the snow in this area despite the short fetch across Lake Erie. The upstream connection may support an additional 3-5 inches in persistent bands. The lake effect snow will begin to weaken later Wednesday night, then end Thursday morning as high pressure builds over Lake Erie. Off Lake Ontario... Lake effect snow will re-organize to the northeast of the lake by mid morning with the approach of the cold front. A combination lake effect snow band and frontal squall will then move east across the eastern Lake Ontario region late morning and early afternoon, dropping a quick 2-4 inches, with 3-5 inches possible on the Tug Hill with added orographic enhancement. By mid to late afternoon boundary layer flow will become WNW, allowing lake effect snow to focus southeast of the lake from Wayne to southern Oswego counties. Wednesday night boundary layer flow will continue to veer to the northwest. This will allow the lake effect snow band to move onshore and back westward along the south shore, from Wayne County westward to at least Orleans County, including the Rochester Metro area. Mesoscale model guidance suggests an upstream connection to Georgian Bay will develop during this time, enhancing the Lake Ontario snow. This will bring a good chance of 3-5 inches across much of the south shore of the lake from Orleans to Wayne counties, including the Rochester area. There could be locally more if the band and upstream connection stall for several hours in one location, but right now it looks like this band will keep moving. Northwest flow will maintain a spray of multiple bands southeast of Lake Ontario through Thursday, but additional accumulations should be light during this time as inversion heights lower, synoptic scale moisture continues to decrease, and the Georgian Bay connection is lost..