wolfie09

U can see on the gfs these storms have no choice but to eventually go east due to the confluence.. Hopefully that trends stronger/better positioned as we get closer..

Gfs was quite active in it's LR with 5 storms from Christmas to the end of it's run. I Know it looks like cutter central but the gfs has strong HP after Strong HP to our north.. Timing of these features won't be known for a while.

Three month Outlook was updated today as well. EC to slight probabilities below normal (wny)..Avg temps is all we need JFM..

Gfs trying to give us a little light snow Christmas evening..

Majority of the country has a southerly breeze.

Zonal PAC flow with the northern stream up in Canada equals a nice warm up.. Granted in upstate that means mid 30s, maybe catch a 40 lol

LR euro has something cooking up , actually all the LR guidance does..Cuts on the gfs and probably cuts on the European but it's there lol Better HP placement could yield positive results..

Gfs little bit more robust. Verbatim some light rain/snow showers, day after Christmas for the most part..

Once again we need HP to save us or this is gonna cut. Timing varies from model to model, which is obviously to be expected..

Enters Cali on Sunday..

This system has PAC origins not Canadian..So the system won't be overly cold..

Last 2 runs of the Canadian.. Goes north of us Christmas rain, goes to our south Christmas snow..

HP slowly retreating allows this system to cut through NY State... Gfs obliterates this system.

Could be Xmas rain for some..U have weak LP trying to under cut HP to our north..

Down to 2° with light snow, picked up an inch overnight..

All the hrw members showing some"Mexico bay" snow.. Could be a few bonus inches of fluff, we'll see..

Decent band in Fulton/Hannibal proper, sws for 1"-2" an hour.. looks a bit disorganized..

I love when the NWS updates after the fact lol Damage is already done.. This wasn't my forecast this morning that's for sure.. This Afternoon Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 28. Northwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Latest map..As of 1245 pm

Worst part of the event lol

I actually post an image on another board then copy link and paste it on here haha My screenshots are usually still to large, so I have to crop them..

Regional radars show a band of heavy snow arcing from southern Oswego County to the Tug Hill. A circulation center is noted in radar and satellite imagery entering Jefferson County. This will result in a complex area of heavy snow moving across the eastern Lake Ontario region through early afternoon as mesoscale ascent from the circulation center interacts with lake effect processes. This last burst of heavy snow may produce 3 inch per hour snowfall rates briefly across much of the eastern Lake Ontario region. Following this last burst of snow, boundary layer flow will quickly veer to northwest in the wake of the arctic front. Until then, the Tug Hill region may see another 4-7 inches through mid afternoon. Once the northwest flow becomes established, multiple lake effect snow bands will develop. along much of the south shore of the lake from eastern Niagara/Orleans counties to Oswego County. There will likely be one, somewhat dominant band embedded within this that is forced by a developing upstream Georgian Bay connection. This upstream connection will first develop late this afternoon across Wayne/Cayuga counties, then move westward down the shoreline to Orleans/Monroe counties by late this evening as boundary layer flow continues to veer

The main arctic cold front is crossing Western and Central NY early this afternoon, supporting a band of snow showers and snow squalls along it that are partially fueled from lake effect bands that the front captured and is spreading inland. Most of the heavier, frontal snow squalls will move southeast of the area by mid afternoon. A very sharp, deep, mid level trough will dive across northern NY and New England tonight, delivering some of the coldest air so far this early winter season. This will continue to support lake effect snow, with migrating bands as winds steadily veer to the northwest in the wake of the cold front. Lake induced equilibrium levels are near their peak now at over 15K feet, then will steadily drop tonight as the deepest cold air aloft moves away and inversion heights lower.