wolfie09

It's snow, enhanced by the lake.. Doesn't mean it will happen though lol

Pivotal doesn't show sleet as snow..

Euro lifts the stacked low North..

Euro has zip, not surprising..

Gfs barely has a dry day starting Sunday until the end of it's run..Some rain, some snow and a combination of both .

Ggem actually lifts it North unlike gfs/icon, creates SW flow..

Cmc trended quicker towards the gfs/icon..

Gfs was a little colder overall with a little synoptic and lake effect .. Last 2 runs the ULL has gone just south of us..

Need to hope for this look in the near term.. Euro refuses to progress Eastward with the ULL/stacked LP..

6z GFS was south with the ULL so the snow was farther south..lol All about the positioning of that feature..For here I want it just north of us, like the icon and previous GFS runs..

Small window for some LES as alluded to by the NWS . Albeit nothing to write home about.. The air mass is only modestly cold for late December with its core only down to around -12C at 850mb. This will support a brief lake response with snow showers east of the lakes on Tuesday. This may provide a narrow window for accumulating lake snows, but given the marginal nature of the instability it appears to be a relatively minor lake event.. Gfs and Canadian show it, euro does not..

It's like a conveyer belt of moisture, just to far north..

Icon not far behind if at all lol

Gfs done right with the phasing part of this system but not so sure it's right now lol Consistent for sure..

Still hanging on here..

Looks like the majority of models now keep the ULL in the lakes minus the gfs who the wpc is siding with lol Looks like 2ndry development will form somewhere, maybe multiple..

Merry Christmas all!! WPC Extended forecast discussion..

.with the outlier GFS showing its usual cold bias and supporting a much quicker arrival of colder air and resultant increased potential for lake effect snow showers downwind of the lakes from later Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile the GEM and ECMWF are much slower in returning colder air and lake effect potential to our region...with the GEM holding the latter off until at least Monday night...and the ECMWF more notably even remaining far too warm for a lake response right through Tuesday. Given these differences and the GFS`s propensity to be far too cold/too fast with bringing colder air into our region...have tempered both the drop in temperatures and increase in lake effect probabilities previously indicated for Monday and Tuesday...with the latter looking to be no higher than lower end of the chance range at this juncture.

U won't be back in time for this storm will you? Lol I kid I kid.. Have a good holiday, hopefully u come back to more than just liquid..

In reality the best medium range guidance is the European ensembles..

PNA region Your more than welcome to show me some statistics with the GFS OP on top, I can't seem to find them.

That is global.. This is Northern Hemisphere

It's still the best medium range we got .