wolfie09

Yup, just north of Fulton to parish is a nice little hot spot, 3/4 of the WNW events will be in that area..

One of those rare events my area jackpots lol One of these days.. I'm also not sure Matt is rooting for the tug anymore as he is down in Baldwinsville lol Speaking of the tug, some fantasy goodies..

Rgem starting to get into range, which is my personal LES go to model..

It's not the NAM lol This is how models get a bad rap.. It's Tropical tidbits that's the issue .

Models are starting to show more of a coastal storm for the 6th-7th..

Bottom of my snowpack is so frozen it's starting to crack lol

The system between the 5th-7th that has "potential" for some LES was the same system the gfs was bombing out into the 930's lol But u can obviously see no chance at phase here, as of now.. 978 mb pretty impressive for a northern stream disturbance though..

The one thing we have going for us is timing, trough/front moves through just after dark on Tuesday.. Temps hang in the Mid-upper 20s through the night, which isn't that marginal when it comes to snow accumulation..

No doubt Pauly, just pointing out how bad TT is lol They even count rain as snow.. For example TT has 6" here while pivotal has 2"-3" but all I see is rain/snow lol Not zr/ip..

I'd like to see a couple/few inches by Wednesday am lol But it's still the LR NAM..

This is why I look at only pivotal kuchera lol

More of a Westerly flow on the European then Previous runs, wind could be a little problematic along the shoreline in terms of being"skipped over"... Better than nothing I suppose lol

Some nice upslope snows on the gfs/Ggem, not that it matters to most of us lol

Very favorable track, if it was just a couple degrees colder...

Gfs flips us over Tuesday afternoon/evening and snows until early Thursday AM...

In the wake of Tuesday afternoon`s secondary trough/cold frontal passage...850 mb temperatures will dip to around -9C/-10C...or just marginally cold enough to support some weak to modest lake effect snows east and east-northeast of the lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning given the general westerly to west-southwesterly low level flow. With decent moisture and enhancement from upsloping in place...cannot rule out some moderate accumulations where the resulting activity is most persistent...however the relatively short time window...only marginally cold enough environment and the presence of some shear all still suggest only a minor lake effect event. Regardless of how much of a lake response there actually is... this should quickly wind down from west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening as surface-based ridging and drier air builds into our region...and warm air advection develops aloft.

Favorable wind direction on the gfs, temps just cold enough lol

Euro is getting there..

I still like the chances of a little snow sometime Tuesday-thursday on a mainly west-wsw flow, nothing huge but could pad the stats a little..lol

Hooked up my weather station yesterday so kinda looking forward to some rain lol I wanna test out the gauge and get rid of this crusty snow .. Gauge did well this morning with 0.11" liquid, on par with neighboring stations..

Well it hasn't been nearly as much of a torch here, hell I can finally see my driveway lol We hit mid 40's once last week but we also had lows of 2, -3 and -10, which offsets the average daily temps..I have about 12" more snow this December than last, which isn't saying much lol The next several days we are under the influence of a cutter so it makes sense to be warm.. Life's to short for me to worry about what's coming a month from now lol

Gfs has been damn consistent that's for sure..

Euro was a little better verbatim, actually shows a little snow lol