wolfie09

Euro with a big snowstorm day 9 as well.. Another system up the OV that transfers lol

NE is always the best place to be with these type of systems.. Even a late capture can deliver decent snow if it heads for the gulf of Maine..

Euro late to the party as well.. Similar to the Canadian and ukmet..

So the global models and rgem have mostly rain/mix while the NAM/Hrw products, hrdps and hrrr have mostly snow, not that it would amount to much..

U can start seeing grass showing.. But it still looks somewhat like winter lol Doesn't feel like it though..

It can always be worse lol I need like 35" over the next 3 months to surpass these totals..

Idk I don't dabble in this witchcraft u guys call LR forecasting lol All I know is I haven't seen full grass since November. We still have 3 months to go, as bad as last year was I still finished with 177° for the year . We will pay for this in the long run when it's snowing into may..

Sneaky potential for a little LES on a NW flow behind the departing system..

Ggem similar to the gfs with some west-wsw enhancement, especially the hills..

Ukmet goes over NJ into sne..

Bro did u not see the last page? The European was a cutter, the models are going total opposite lol

Little bit of a late capture on the Canadian.

This is all from Sunday/Monday on the gfs..imby.. Doesn't have much with the sat system..

Euro has not been stellar this year and I defend it all the time lol Just yesterday it has 6" for LI, sure just a blip but no other model had that issue lol

Last night's run..

This was the European on Tuesday and Wednesday..

The next system is all about timing once again.. Gfs insistent on missing the phase.. Latest icon also just misses it.

Concern for heavy snowfall continues to revolve around the potential phasing of northern and southern stream energy somewhere along the east coast during Saturday. Guidance continues to feature a variety of solutions in both the amount of phasing, as well as when this will occur, not to mention the resultant surface low track. There has been wide variability leading to lowered confidence in the forecast, and a trend towards the ensemble means remains prudent. That leaves a surface low which will lift northeast through Pennsylvania before transferring to secondary low development south of Long Island. If northern/southern stream phasing can occur early on Saturday, this low may track into the Gulf of Maine, but the trend has been for a more suppressed solution as the dynamics eject east quickly, allowing the surface low to remain weak and push off to the east as well. Initially the thermals will only support rain due to a warm column, with the exception being northern New England, but as the low pulls away cold air will wrap back towards the coast causing a p-type transition from rain to snow. The amount of precipitation available once the column cools remains in question, and at this time most of the snowfall is forecast to be light to moderate, with the highest amounts confined to the terrain. WPC probabilities for 6 inches are 30-50% in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites, with lesser amounts further to the south and at lower elevation.

Continues to have that warm wedge into CNY

Rgem still all rain here lol Hi Rez Canadian is mostly snow.

If we can stay at 33° or so I think we can see a couple /few inches, precip rates seem to be improving some..

Missing out on a decent event by 2-3 degrees..

It usually all comes down to precipitation rates, look at last event, sticking at 36-37 under heavy precip.. Hrrr has surface between 33-35 but rates probably won't get it done and the timing sucks..

Navy was one of the first (if not the first) to show this one going through NE PA..