wolfie09

Euro is a mixed mess .. From rain-snow, ice and sleet..

Big time ice and sleet storm on the gfs..

For tonight a mid level shortwave will aid in pushing a surface trough across our region. Aloft a 170 knot W-E jet will be strengthening over the Ohio Valley, with our region becoming under the favorable lift of the left exit region of this jet. These features together with moisture deepening with the passing trough aloft, will develop a broad area of light snow. Timing this snow...the onset of heavier synoptic snow will be around 7 pm tonight across far WNY, and between 1 am and 4 am east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures aloft tonight will drop to around -5 to -6C, not quite cold enough for true lake effect, but there will likely be some lake moisture enhancing snow totals to the east of the Lakes. Within a 6 to 9 hour period of snow...several inches of snow will fall...with highest totals just to the east of the Lakes. By later tonight temperatures aloft will cool a few degrees such that the synoptic snows will contract back towards the favored lake effect snow belts east of both Lakes. A glancing shot of colder air will likely add a few more inches of lake effect snow through the day east of Lake Erie, while slightly longer duration of cold westerly winds that will parallel the lake, along with slightly better lake effect parameters will likely bring several more inches of snow on the Tug Hill region...such that a winter weather advisory will be issued. This advisory will start late tonight to capture the initial synoptic snows...and continue through the day Monday and into Monday evening where the better snows under a lake effect snow band will fall. Here, over a 24 hour period 5 to as much as 9 inches of snow may accumulate. Convergence maximizes late tomorrow morning east of Lake Ontario and this is when snowfall rates could reach 1"/hr. As the lake inversion heights fall tomorrow afternoon (Lake Erie) and tomorrow evening (Lake Ontario) and winds shift slightly to a west-northwest direction, the lake effect snow east of both lakes will taper off SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... This will be basically the coldest portion of the forecast as the main lobe of modified Arctic air wanders across the Lower Great Lakes region centered around Wednesday. Before its arrival via a moisture-starved cold front Tuesday night, a system looks to have a near miss to our southeast on Tuesday, spreading precipitation generally along the Middle Atlantic coast. We are mostly sandwiched between this system and the incoming cold front from our northwest. This comes screaming through on Tuesday night with some snow shower activity. Fairly robust cold advection in its wake and quickly steepening low-level lapse rates that get the moist layer up into the dendritic growth layer fairly easily will allow for lake effect snows to quickly ramp up in WNW flow. This will favor the Chautauqua/Cattaraugus and Oswego County areas for the main impacts, however lesser snows will be likely across most of the south shore of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area.

WWA issued.. Kbgm map

Latest map..

Yeah it actually feels like winter today.. The snow last night had a little"fluff" factor but only managed about 1/2".. Temps over the next 3-4 days still looks above average just by not as much lol

Pretty similar situation to last event with 850 mb temps only Between -10c-12c.. I only picked up 3" while Redfield had double digits, could be a similar outcome but at this point I'll take what I can get lol

Wpc 4" probabilities..

Rgem looking pretty good..

For tonight through tomorrow night..

Gfs keeps us in the game with a long ways to go..

Cmc went weenie mode tonight lol

Wednesday is pretty must just a clipper but it still could be decent..

At least the pats lost Misery loves company lol Next the eagles..

Yeah lol I was at a bills party, don't have a dog in the fight but was rooting for Buffalo.. Some of those play at the end were head scratching to say the least, especially the lateral with 1min 4sec left lol Good game nonetheless, always got next year

Snowing and sticking, 31.6°

I have pretty tough skin dude, not much really bothers me..I actually don't really mind the pessimism, balances the board.. Now with the snowfall I measured 177" last year, we had similar latitude but you had the advantage of altitude..So those numbers are not far off..Last November we had 40" of snow, 1/3 of January lows were below zero, it basically snowed into may lol I take the good with the bad, I've yet to have a wall to wall winter in the 5 years in Oswego county..

Nice post and agree.. I'm all about the chase and the event, after that I couldn't care less lol I'm not a huge fan of bitter cold and I hate the clean up lol

None that I speak to lol I grew up near the port Richmond area but have lived all over Staten island...

Yea I grew in in staten island and the jersey shore...I remember plenty of single digit seasons

I didn't see much bickering when everyone had 30"-40" by mid December lol We've hit a rough patch no doubt, but it's weather, how many winters are actually wall to wall..

Bro Redfield had 200-250 inches last year and you still weren't satisfied.. You complained just as much last year as this year lol

Rgem has some decent streamers overnight, even for here on a NW flow..Temp is down to 32.4° and dropping, whatever does fall overnight should accumulate..

I guess it's been that kind of winter.. Track is nice..See what it looks like in a week lol