wolfie09

I just like to point out how much the 3k Nam sucks lol

Not that different from the ukmet..

Some ice for wny..

I guess this is what happens when u have some heavy precip over the area, to bad we can't keep it that way lol

Yeah the CMC retreats the HP as our system is moving north, just another solution..

Ukmet also cuts just west of us.. The HP can be as strong as I wants, if it's out of position it won't matter lol

Big difference between PW and college of depage verbatim.. PW is more sleet while COD is more ice, must be a algorithm thing..

I'd rather bump those south lol

Yeah, changeover early Saturday afternoon.. We will start as rain no matter what, it's a question on how fast the cold comes in..

Gefs with members.. I imagine plenty of rainers in there..

Ripping out right now .. Briefly made it to 34°, back down to 32.8° Huge wet flakes..

Kbgm The flow turns west, then west northwest on Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region. The cold air mass arriving later on Wednesday will allow morning lows in the 20s to not warm up too much by the afternoon. The re-enforcing air mass will keep highs on Wednesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A persistent w/nwly flow behind the upper low exiting to the northeast will create favorable conditions for lake effect snow through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures -14 to -18 deg C...a deep 10k ft mixed layer...modest low level instability and limited shear in the BL should all be favorable for lake effect snow bands into Central NY through the overnight hours. Outside of the more persistent snow bands there is also the potential for snow showers...and some could be briefly heavy. Several more inches of snow is possible in a short period of time Wed afternoon/evening. As temperatures cool snow to liquid ratios increase rapidly to between 15-20:1 or greater

Here was the gfs for kfzy..

Gfs had -10c at 850mb starting around lunch, stays at that number all day lol It's also about the same time the Canadian guidance has bands forming..

I love me some rgem lol Obviously this includes Wednesday system as well which should have about a 6 hr window of Westerly flow.. Mostl likely a little excessive lol

Winds now out of the WSW(243° vector) as u can see the slow incline in temps.. Steady snow right now, 1.5" overnight..

That Bermuda high is not budging bro lol

That's what we need, the European 4k..lol They also have several 1k models as well as a 7k icon (ours is 13k lol)..

Obviously a lot will have to do with the HP dropping down from Canada and it's location/timing.. Ukmet for example out paces the HP and sends the system through WNY, 40's-50's with rain..

SYRACUSE, NY (WSYR-TV) — Winter in Central New York has taken a hiatus over the past two weeks. Starting just before Christmas and going through Sunday, January 5, measurable snow has fallen just two days (New Year’s Eve and Sunday January 5th) in Syracuse with temperatures averaging more than 10 degrees above normal! But is this one of the slower starts to winter Syracuse has ever seen? The short answer is ‘No.’ While we are more than a foot below normal, the seasonal snow total stands at about 31” and we are just about 7 inches behind the pace set last winter when we still managed to reach 115” of snow by the end of the season. To get into the top ten slowest starts to winter you need a seasonal snow total of under 20” by the end of December and to get into the top five it has be a foot or less. In fact, the least amount of snow through the end of December was recent, 2015-’16, when only 2.5” of snow had fallen by the time New Year’s Day arrived! The pace for that winter picked up after January 1, and we still managed 80.3 inches for the season For some winters though, the slow start was hard to make up for. The Winters of 2011-’12, 2001-’02 and 1994-’95 ended up well below normal. Winter Thru Dec. 31st Seasonal Snow 2011-‘12 7.2” 50.6” 2001-‘02 8.0” 59.4” 1994-‘95 9.4” 62.2” The final winter on that list, 1965-’66, did end up closer to normal for the season at 118.8” of snow, but it received a HUGE boost at the end of January when the Blizzard of ’66 hit dropping 42” of snow in just 3 days. Looking ahead, the weather heading into the middle of the month looks up and down for Syracuse. Some snow will occur for the first full week of the new year, but also signs of a thaw once again to end the week into the start of the second weekend of the year and again come mid-month.

Hopefully we can get a little more snow and a little less ice lol

No shortage in precipitation..

Euro has a decent swath of snow verbatim..