wolfie09

That system on the 16th helps us anchor in the HP for longer, not allowing it to quickly retreat..

That Thursday system keeps bouncing around. From a stronger cutter to a weak wave south of us and now a weak wave over us lol WPC yesterday alluded to the fact that we have more spread on the 16th system than the 18th lol NWS going all snow atm which seems a bit sketchy..

It all comes do these bad boys...Sort of a banana high? LP quite weak as well, at least in the early going.. We also have a rapidly deepening secondary off the MA coast which saves WNY, now if the primary hangs on longer we know what the outcome usually is lol

It really is incredible to have these tracks with the ULL's and that kind of snow lol

Gefs mean is kbuf 8.5", Kroc 8.8", ksyr 11.9"..JP is just to the east of here into the Adirondacks with 12"-15", which is obviously pretty impressive for a mean lol

6z gefs Source

Snow should be in the buffalo area between 1am-7am Saturday, a little earlier if the Canadian is correct..This goes for NYC as well.

Euro was quick thump, need to watch where the transfer happens..

Ggem was solid, a lot of NW flow in the LR..

Concerning Thursday the gfs shifted North over CNY, rain to snow showers.. Canadian takes a pretty good track across the NY/PA border, few inches verbatim.

I'm not sure if it's due to the secondary development but u only have to be a mile or two north of the ULL to see snow lol cold air really fights, for now.. These are the warmest frames..

Another impressive run on the gfs..See what the rest of 0z suite shows, not that it means much lol

Kbgm SUNDAY/... 2 pm update... Little change. The first system Wednesday night into Thursday looks like a mostly snow event with temperatures mostly in the lower 30s during the event. Still much uncertainty as models still do not agree. As below, Euro strongest with the most snow as it tracks across upstate NY. Canadian now strengthens it some but further south across the twin tiers. GFS still the weakest. Some lake effect on the back side Thursday night before high pressure Friday. Snow amounts only look to be a few inches. Will have to watch the weekend storm. Better model consensus. A good storm which could bring a several inches of snow to the entire area late Friday night through Saturday.

Euro is your typical "thump" as we flip to drizzle before flipping back to some light snow..

Secondary developing pretty quick, could rob the area of moisture..But obviously temps crash as well..

Going to be fun watching the clash of airmasses..

Euro again is just south of CNY on Thursday, not much in the way of precip due to the LP going over the area.. Canadian at the same time is in central PA, a blend would most likely yield a couple/few inches..

Canadian has a light Snowfall on Thursday (1"-3" type) and is snow to rain and back to snow for next weekend..

Should we pretend like this never happened? Lol We were do for a run..

BTW has a few inches of synoptic/lake effect Thursday for Syracuse fwiw..

Boy the gfs is trolling lol