That Thursday system keeps bouncing around.
From a stronger cutter to a weak wave south of us and now a weak wave over us lol
WPC yesterday alluded to the fact that we have more spread on the 16th system than the 18th lol
NWS going all snow atm which seems a bit sketchy..
It all comes do these bad boys...Sort of a banana high?
LP quite weak as well, at least in the early going..
We also have a rapidly deepening secondary off the MA coast which saves WNY, now if the primary hangs on longer we know what the outcome usually is lol
Gefs mean is kbuf 8.5", Kroc 8.8", ksyr 11.9"..JP is just to the east of here into the Adirondacks with 12"-15", which is obviously pretty impressive for a mean lol
Concerning Thursday the gfs shifted North over CNY, rain to snow showers.. Canadian takes a pretty good track across the NY/PA border, few inches verbatim.
I'm not sure if it's due to the secondary development but u only have to be a mile or two north of the ULL to see snow lol cold air really fights, for now..
These are the warmest frames..
Kbgm
SUNDAY/...
2 pm update...
Little change. The first system Wednesday night into Thursday
looks like a mostly snow event with temperatures mostly in the
lower 30s during the event. Still much uncertainty as models
still do not agree. As below, Euro strongest with the most snow
as it tracks across upstate NY. Canadian now strengthens it
some but further south across the twin tiers. GFS still the
weakest. Some lake effect on the back side Thursday night before
high pressure Friday. Snow amounts only look to be a few inches.
Will have to watch the weekend storm. Better model consensus. A
good storm which could bring a several inches of snow to the
entire area late Friday night through Saturday.
Euro again is just south of CNY on Thursday, not much in the way of precip due to the LP going over the area..
Canadian at the same time is in central PA, a blend would most likely yield a couple/few inches..