wolfie09

A lot to get through lol Southeast of Lake Erie, the snow will be most persistent across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, where a Lake Huron connection may also provide some enhancement. This snow will be most widespread Thursday morning, before slowly backing off in coverage and intensity Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Expect total accumulations of 4-6 inches across the higher terrain from late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Southeast of Lake Ontario, the initial upslope driven response across the Tug Hill will evolve into lake effect snow showers southeast of the lake Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This will produce some modest accumulations from Wayne to Oswego counties, although the lack of terrain to help in this area and the lack of a Georgian Bay connection will keep accumulations limited to 2-4, or perhaps 3-5 inches in the most persistent bands. The heavier snow amounts will end up on the Tug Hill, with totals of 4-8 inches from Wednesday night through Thursday night from the initial synoptic system, then lake enhanced upslope flow. Latest high resolution guidance also suggests a Georgian Bay band will meander through the area between Buffalo and Rochester, possibly extending down into the western Finger Lakes. This may drop a few inches locally on Thursday if the band is able to remain in one location for a few hours. Outside of these main lake effect areas, sporadic snow showers will produce a dusting to an inch of accumulation Thursday.

A rather potent mid level shortwave and surface low will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, exiting into New England on Thursday. This compact, fast moving system will usher much colder air back into our region and mark the start of a much colder and more wintry pattern after a long period of mild weather. DPVA ahead of the mid level trough and a wing of warm advection ahead of the surface low will support a few showers spreading quickly from west to east across the region Wednesday evening. Temperatures will rise into the low or even mid 40s from western Oswego County westward Wednesday evening, so most of this will initially fall as rain. The one possible exception is east of Lake Ontario, where colder temperatures surface and aloft may support some wet snow right from the onset. Given the warm temperatures, any snow accumulation will be minimal through most of Wednesday night. The one exception will be the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks, where initial colder temperatures and upslope flow may support a few inches of accumulation Wednesday night. Strong cold advection will develop late Wednesday night following the passage of the surface low center, which moves almost directly overhead. A period of deep wrap around moisture, strong DPVA with the mid level shortwave, and developing lake instability will support snow showers becoming more widespread late Wednesday night and Thursday morning as temperatures drop rapidly below freezing. The higher QPF amounts during this period will be closely tied to terrain, with developing WNW upslope flow combined with increasing lake instability providing enhancement. This will target the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario, and the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County east of Lake Erie. Both areas should see a period of accumulating snow very late Wednesday night through Thursday. Later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night the orographic enhancement will give way to a more pure lake effect signal as a cold pool aloft settles over the eastern Great Lakes. This will support lake induced equilibrium levels of 8-10K feet Thursday, slowly dropping to around 6K feet by late Thursday night as inversion heights lower. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will reside within the cloud bearing layer, supporting large, fluffy dendrites. Boundary layer flow will become northwest, supporting fairly widespread snow showers and narrow bands of snow southeast of the lakes.

Hwo An area of low pressure will cross the area Wednesday night through Thursday, producing accumulating snow. The greatest accumulations will be found across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks, where 4 to 8 inches of accumulation is possible. Deep low pressure will then move across the region this weekend. This system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and gusty winds Saturday night and Sunday. Additional accumulations of lake effect snow will be possible on Sunday when the gusty winds could support blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

Hi Rez is north with the surface low, but still all snow.. Little better verbatim than the 12k..

Doesn't really matter much anyway..Nam gave us more when we started as rain lol

It's funny how it shows mixing at ksyr with heavy snow all around it lol Not that I buy that..

U can see some enhancement NE of the lakes, probably due to wsw flow with the a system passing by to the west..

We actually never flip over here lol It does develop a secondary, late but it acts as a double barrel, becomes the primary in the gulf of maine..Not sure what effect this would have on enhancement..

Euro came in South for Thursday

It's a different type of track for sure.. To me it's more like a Southwest flow event..

Late capture with the last system, which means very little at this juncture.. Always comes down to timing..

Ukmet is like the GFS..

Yeah the gfs develops the secondary much later than the Canadian but unfortunately we know what usually verifies lol

Always finds a way to cut, at least this year.. Thursday

Well freak is next, then me lol

Another busted week? Lol Thursday looks mainly upslope to me, south of Syracuse and the tug.. Saturday could be a rainstorm soon..lol

Looks nothing like what the NWS has for Thursday lol

Here was the ukmet total precipitation and still snowing.. Obviously we don't know how much is rain vs snow..

This is also a two part system. Once the CF swings through and the secondary gets going we will see some enhancement and LES..Maybe south shore can cash in on the back end.

That's why when this system was progged over L.Erie it was still snow at kbuf..Now with the inevitable North trend with the primary, warm front is being pushed north.

I don't think we flip until that warm front moves through, followed closely by a CF few hours later..

Here is for Thursday.

Wpc picking up on it..But obviously any change in track will have consequences..