wolfie09

Does it go NW of us? Because I've never had a cutter go south of me..

It's also comical that gfs had been showing a snowstorm and no one posted it until one run it showed a cutter, tells me all I need to know..

No such thing as an an upstate cutter.. It's called a great lakes cutter for a reason

You mean like today's cutter?

If that 1044 HP was a little west no way it cuts..We have 10 days to fix that lol

Verbatim it's snow lol Once again due to HP Albeit light..

U can see it weakening under the pressure.. Most likely would pop a secondary..

That's a strong HP it's going to have to plow through..

Gfs was close to 2" liquid by Tuesday am..

What mess lol

31.1° with light snow, a good 1/2"-1" on the ground..

Precipitation is pretty much over by then, once the warm front moves through precip shuts off..Then the CF swings through..

Once the CF moves through.. SLRs rapidly ramp up toward 20:1 as this occurs, as well.

How often do we see WAA snows? That's all they are talking about lol Not clippers, not cold fronts , not lake effect or lake enhancement lol That's how we get most of our snow..

They don't even mention any type of NW flow or enhancement for next week.. Lake effect snows will continue east of the lakes for much of the early portion of next week as cold continues to reside and pinwheel across the Great Lakes. What`s interesting about this pattern is while the ensembles all yield a few days of cold air, the formation of a coherent Hudson Bay low is utterly lacking, thus while the long term portion of the 7 day remains cold, it would seem difficult for it to be entrenched much beyond that as there is no large scale forcing for longitudinal transport of cold air into the eastern CONUS

The aforementioned next system will start to spread warm advection aloft over WNY late overnight into Saturday morning. As such, light snow will become common and spread eastward across the area through the morning and early afternoon hours. A track of the surface low is favored across Wisconsin into Ontario, which is well north of the area. This will result in a warm tongue making its way into the lower Great Lakes. Evolution of this warm tongue is of key importance to the eventual weather over much of our area. The GFS quite oddly is the warm outlying solution with positive 850 hPa temperatures running up to the south Lake Ontario shoreline as warm advection continues into the evening. The NAM and ECMWF and GEFS mean all fail to do this. However, give the track of the low, and southwesterly flow off the lake, it seems difficult to fathom that the boundary layer won`t run up above freezing from Dunkirk to Buffalo and probably at least as far east as Rochester. As such, it would seem precipitation should at least mix with sleet in the coldest solutions and mix with rain or change to rain in the warmer solutions. That said, a full changeover has been put in the forecast from Dunkirk to Buffalo with a mix with rain/sleet over the Southern Tier and all the way up along the entirety of the southern shore of Lake Ontario. Accumulations of snow in warm advection are always tricky. The SLRs are virtually always overestimated in the multi-model blends and the Cobb method likewise yields ratios that are too high most of the time. This will be of key concern due to the extensive riming likely in our warm advection regime given the magnitude of warm air off the surface and the probability of near or above zero Celsius at 850 hPa. These both work to drastically decrease the SLRs observed. The forecast was thus built with far lower than climo SLRs for at least the warm advection portion of the event. As the trailing cold front pushes across the area Saturday evening and night, cold air will come rushing in, and soundings will quickly become drastically unstable in the lower levels. A nice push of differential PVA works with these lapse rates to probably yield a quick push of snow along and just behind the front for everyone before moisture peels off and lake effect becomes the predominant issue. As this occurs, and concurrent with the cold frontal passage, wind off the deck starts to ramp up toward 50 kts, and given unstable low level lapse rates, this will yield a wind post-frontal period across the area. However, given the exceedingly wet snow ahead of the front, it probably will take a bit before blowing snow would become a concern, and most areas other than the inland North Country will not have seen enough snow to make blowing snow an issue until late into Saturday night. As lake effect ramps up in cold advection overnight Saturday night into Sunday, the Lake Erie band will start near Buffalo then wander southward as the boundary layer cools. Quick wet accumulations may be possible in Buffalo before the much more efficient snows drift with the band toward the Boston Hills and points southward. SLRs rapidly ramp up toward 20:1 as this occurs, as well. Similarly, the same thing happens east of Lake Ontario on Sunday, with a dominant band likely east of Lake Ontario to dump high ratio lake snows on and near the Tug Hill. Headlines in both locations will be likely.

Hrdps goes the PA route as well.. Doesn't matter much..Takes time for the system to get going..

3k was pretty far south too.

Day 3 and 4 Timing doesn't match up great.. Part of day 3 is in day 4..lol

Going to be a tale of 2 halves lol

For Saturday and still snowing..

Both NAM products like Syracuse and the hills to the South tomorrow..