wolfie09

Gfs should grow a pair..

And still snowing with a multi-band set up Sunday night...TT goes out to hr 54..

Icon who is usually a little to warm is pretty cold as well.. Precipitation amounts may hurt more than p-type..

And 12z today

Here was the gfs on Monday..

The models have pin pointed the same area for like 7 days now lol Or it seems like it..

These are the warmest frames in and around kbuf.. Roc flips to some sleet on the next frame..

Decent collaboration from east to west..

Here is kbgm map that includes most of it but probably not all..

Nam keeps wanting to throw this warm tongue into parts of CNY..It dissipates next frame..

If u read between the lines, they are expecting a moderate accumulation Sunday night along the south shore..Now both the gfs and Ggem put the kabash on this by Monday am..

Buffalo is including LES into their forecast.. WWA for wny is 2"-4" , the rest is lake effect/enhancement.. But it doesn't include all the lake effect..

I think they are looking at this as a 2 prong for wny.. Sunday forecast is mainly Wsw-west flow, turning NW Sunday night. They would have to extend it to Tues lol This is referencing Kroc.. Sunday Night Snow showers likely. Patchy blowing snow between 8pm and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%. M.L.King Day Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

They obviously don't know where the tug hill is lol Even though their is a difference between "tug hill region" and"tug hill plateau"

Upgraded to a warning.. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches at lower elevations, and 12 to 18 inches on the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph producing blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest accumulations will focus on the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in isolated power outages.

The one thing being shown on the majority of LR guidance is one strong HP after another. Becomes a timing issue, that can't be resolved 9 days out lol This system here in the super LR, takes almost an identical track as sat..

Not going to make it..Just gets squashed

Euro is trying to gain latitude lol

Not much at 0z.. Keeps the streams separate.. 12z coming out now, still a long way till next weekend lol

Yeah, it goes the Miller B route..

Gfs is pretty much a cutter/CF next weekend..With a little light snow on the backside..Looks like our friend up north is coming in with a more wintry Outlook..

Canadian guidance always sticks together lol

Gfs through the entirety.. I'm always stuck near the balls..