wolfie09

We won't know what happens till it happens lol U guys need to ride the gfs hard...

Hrrr is actually pretty good considering it has 8"-10" by early tomorrow AM but shows nothing afterwards, NWS has it snowing through Monday lol

12z hrrr continues with the tight cutoff..It also has like no precip on Sunday during the lake Enhancement portion..

It was more for max, Matt and freak, you just got included Just lightening the mood as we wait for our storm lol

This weekend's forecast via the NWS

P&C forecast has 9"-16" here but it's over 2 days lol It's kind of a dink and dunk forecast with 1"-3"/2"-4" each 12 hour period, with a Max of 3"-5" Sunday night..

All 3 major ensemble packages have a storm off the Delmarva.. Wpc D7

Gfs still mostly rain next weekend but this runs transfers all the way down to NC lol 0z icon is like the European and suppressed.. I'm starting to think that is a more likely scenario than a straight up cutter..

Another wide right on the European, which is probably where we wanna see it lol

Gfs is pretty wet. Some of this is probably liquid (imby) but that's debatable..lol

Not sure the rgem is handling this well compared to what the rest of guidance looks like..

All wrf members look similar.. Going to be some nice upslope for the tug..

Arw

Made it down to -3.3° but have since jumped up a degree due to some clouds rolling in.. Probably already hit my minimum..

Nam was pretty nice and of course it was cold..

I just think they forget the ^ symbol lol

Lol temps in the 20s but a rain and snow mix? Doesn't make sense haha.. Even I'm forecasted 33° overnight..

The storm does have an attached warm front lol

Gfs shows some rain even north of me lol But majority of the precip is finished.. Both bgm and buf have temps warming around 2am, into the mid 30s..

Already below zero, -1° to be exact.. Forecast low is -3°

NWS has 1 hour of mixing for Fulton lol But they claim all snow Wayne county east, albeit only 1 hr lol

The most widespread snow will occur Saturday within the warm advection regime ahead of the system. A broad area of strong isentropic ascent will produce a 4-6 hour period of steady precipitation, developing in the morning across Western NY and reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. Across Western NY, model guidance continues to suggest enough of a warm layer aloft to support the chance of some sleet mixing in briefly from late morning through mid afternoon. If sleet lasts for an extended period of time, it would bring down snow accumulations. By late in the afternoon, surface temperatures may become warm enough to change the snow to rain close to the Lake Erie shore, with southerly downslope winds warming temperatures into the mid to upper 30s. Farther east, precip type will remain all snow from about Wayne County eastward. Snow accumulations through early Saturday evening will generally run 2-4 inches, perhaps a little higher across the southern Tug Hill as southerly upslope flow develops. Saturday night the widespread precipitation will taper off across Western NY as a mid level dry slot moves into the area. This will produce a relative lull in precipitation coverage and amounts through most of Saturday night. Temperatures will also be above freezing for a time Saturday night, yielding a rain/snow mix across Western NY at lower elevations. Later Saturday night colder air will move back into Western NY, changing everything back to snow. The airmass will also become cold enough to begin lake enhancement across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie late Saturday night, with snowfall rates picking up across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills late. Additional accumulations Saturday night will range from a few inches across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, to little or nothing at lower elevations. Meanwhile, east of Lake Ontario there will be less of a mid level dry slot, so there will be less of a break in precipitation Saturday night. Expect periods of snow to continue, especially across the Tug Hill supported by continued upslope flow. This will support additional accumulations of a few inches at lower elevations, and 3- 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. Sunday cold air will pour back into the eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the low. Boundary layer flow will be westerly most of the day, targeting areas east of the lakes with heavy lake enhanced snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will climb to around 10K feet by late in the day as cold air deepens. Outside of the main lake effect areas, snow will be relatively light with minor accumulations. East of Lake Ontario, it won`t be pure lake effect, but rather lake enhanced upslope flow supporting the potential for heavy snow across the Tug Hill Plateau. This may produce additional accumulations of up to 5-7 inches across the Tug Hill, and a few inches at lower elevations. Later Sunday afternoon and evening boundary layer flow will begin to veer more northwesterly, diminishing the influence of lake enhancement across the Tug Hill. East of Lake Erie, it will be a little more of a pure lake effect setup with less synoptic scale moisture and ascent. Deepening instability and upslope flow should support persistent moderate snow across the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and hills of Wyoming County Sunday, and continuing Sunday night for that matter. Additional accumulations during the day Sunday of 5-7 inches are possible, with more Sunday night. Total accumulations from Saturday through late Sunday night will be highest across the higher terrain east of the lakes. East of Lake Erie, the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and hills of Wyoming County may see 12-18 inches total. The Tug Hill Plateau will see 12- 18 inches as well, with 7-10 inches for the surrounding lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. The Buffalo area should see 4-6 inches total over the entire weekend, but this will come in two batches with some melting between. Rochester may see 4-7 inches total in several batches with some melting between. The lowest snow amounts will be across Allegany County and the western Finger Lakes with little in the way of lake enhanced snow reaching these areas Sunday. As far as headlines go, issued a Winter Storm Warning east of Lake Ontario where the most widespread heavy snow will occur. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the area for Saturday through portions of Saturday night and Sunday morning. Also issued a Winter Storm Watch for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie for late Saturday night through early Monday morning for lake effect snow. Note, we are handling the potential for wind gusts to 50 mph within the winter weather advisories and warnings instead of issuing separate wind advisory headlines