wolfie09

So much for that west wind as it's clearly more WNW.

Pretty cool to see even though it's not a favorable outcome lol

Gaining about 2° an hour over the last few..

I'm still at 24.4° so I doubt I get much above freezing..Not that I care much lol Hrrr has me hitting freezing around midnight lol

U still have time lol Kfzy is at 31° and the NWS has the warmest temps at 2am..

He's talking kbuf Buffalo was at 40° with a dew of 36° Kroc up to 35°

My forecast has increased to 5"-9" tonight, we'll see about that lol It is ripping pretty good out, just hit 20°..

Yeah it's ripping out, probably the heaviest snow of the day..Still stuck at 19°

And just like that it collapsed

I'm not sure that stuff gets to us.. SR guidance sweeps it along with the CF.. It's seems to be shrinking in coverage.. Guess we'll wait and see.

Not much more behind this right now..We May go into a lull soon..

Going to be a close call in the morning with about a 260 Flow, obviously I need 270.. Rgem keeps me on the fringes as the band slowly sinks south..

Looks like the gfs was in the ballpark for Kroc and kbuf.. Obviously east of Ontario depends on this incoming band..

Right around 2" here since like 11am lol A lot was due to flake structure. Best accumulation should be between 7p-7a.. Actually had quite the burst of graupel earlier, I just can't escape that stuff lol NWS going with 3"-7" tonight and 4"-7" tomorrow/night, we'll see about that lol

Radar filling in nicely, flakes are much improved...Still 18.7°

The forecast becomes more uncertain again later Friday and especially Saturday. The overall upper air pattern across North America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation. This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday. Some previous model runs of the GFS and ECMWF were more aggressive in bringing warm air into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, resulting in a rain event. The 12Z GFS/GEM, and especially the 12Z ECMWF are trending colder again for Saturday and Sunday, potentially setting the stage for accumulating wet snow across our region as the upper level low moves slowly from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday, eventually yielding to secondary coastal cyclogenesis later Sunday off the New England coast. This system is slow moving and should have a good deal of moisture associated with it, so it bears watching. For now introduced rain and snow into the forecast for next Saturday given temperature uncertainty.

As of 18z...a broad area of low pressure was centered over Lake Michigan. While the main supporting shortwave can be seen in WV imagery over Minnesota...the driving feature for this evolving system is a robust shortwave that is depicted over the Lower Ohio Valley. As this bundle of energy progresses up the Ohio Valley during the remainder of the afternoon...it will promote further intensification of the surface low that will be moving across Lower Michigan. A divergent upper level flow ahead of the consolidating sfc low will provide lift for widespread accumulating snow this afternoon...that should largely be in the form of snow across the region. Some sleet and patches of freezing rain will mix in with the snow over the far western counties during the remainder of the afternoon...particularly near Lake Erie. As we work our way through the rest of the afternoon...a strengthening H25 jet (150kts) will push from the Ohio Valley across the Appalachians. This will place us under the favored left front exit region for enhanced lift...while a deepening southerly flow will impinge upon the first of two warm frontal boundaries that will be advancing from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes. The resulting frontogenetic lift will increase the intensity of the pcpn... while thermal profiles will gradually `warm` below cloud level. Climatologically...a deepening storm system cutting by to our west would normally guarantee a change over from snow to at LEAST a mix...if not to just rain at some point. Interestingly...the vast majority of the guidance packages have struggled with depicting a significant warm nose as the deepening sfc low nears our region. Will have to continue to blend climatology with some of the `warmer` guidance...with the result being a transition to mixed pcpn over the western counties all the way to the south shores of Lake Ontario by this evening. The change to a mix...and for some sites (esp near Lk Erie) to a few hours of plain rain...will severely cut into snowfall amounts into early tonight...which will generally range from 2 to as much as 4 inches over most areas. Pcpn east of Lake Ontario is expected to remain as all snow though this event. The primary sfc low will reach its peak intensity (lowest sfc pres) this evening...then as it becomes `captured` by its supporting upper low...the newly stacked mature system will slowly start to weaken as it will move by to our north. This will effectively shut down the moderately strong warm advection that had been in place over our forecast area...as an elevated triple point will cross our forecast area. The pinching off of the shallow warm nose will allow the pcpn to start change back over to all snow over the western counties. During the wee...pre dawn hours of Sunday morning...the cold air on the backside of the evolving complex storm system will deepen to the point where the lake snow machines will fire up on Lake Erie. The 250-260 flow will initially direct 2 to 4 inches moderately heavy lake snow across the southern half of Erie county...possibly starting over the Buffalo `Southtowns`. As we work past daybreak Sunday...the steering flow will veer to 270 and the concentrated lake snows will push south across the Southern Tier. Meanwhile...a cap that had been in the vcnty of 6k ft will rise to nearly 10k ft. The deeper convection and subsequent deeper dendritic growth zone (DGZ) will encourage more efficient snow making with snowfall rates of 1 to as much as 2 inches an hour generating daytime snowfall of 4 to 8 inches. This area has been upgraded to a Lake Effect snow WARNING. Meanwhile across the Eastern Lake Ontario region...strong frontogenetic forcing tonight will produce 4 to 7 inches of synoptic snow. This snow could be moderately heavy at times t...but as the synoptic storm system weakens during its transition to the coast... the widespread snow will lighten in intensity through the first half of Sunday. Once the new coastal storm take shape...strong cold advection during the midday and afternoon will finally initiate lake snows over that region. An initial 260 flow early in the afternoon will fairly quickly veer to more than 300 deg by nightfall. While the organizing lake snows will be push south during this timeframe...daytime accumulations could top 8 inches on the Tug Hill. Will thus maintain the winter storm warning for this area... which will cover not only the synoptic snow through tonight...but the lake snows on Sunday. Finally...it will become quite windy across the region. A fairly strong cold front will plow across the region this evening. A 60kt LLJ in the vcnty of this boundary will at least partially mix to the sfc. This powerful LLJ will weaken fairly quickly by 6z though as the main system transitions to the coast. Will have to closely monitor this aspect to the weekend storm...as there is possibility that damaging winds could once again develop for a brief period over the western counties. For now...will maintain wind gusts to 45 to 55 mph...especially west of the Genesee valley.

Snowing pretty good out, temp has actually dropped a degree to 17.8° I was hoping to warm up a little and get some fat wet flakes lol Semi Current radar, bit disorganized..

Euro came in with a similar outcome day 6/7.. Rain/mix to heavy snow verbatim..

Ggem still with the Miller B look D6/7.. At least gives us something to follow after this storm is over with, carry on..

Flakes just started flying here, 16.9°

Gfs with a weak Miller B next Friday night/sat .Look at that nice donut hole over my house lol All in good fun..

Pretty much just copy and pasted the high end for the most part lol

What's funny is they have Rochester at only a 2% chance but expected Snowfall is 7" lol

Kbuf updated shortly ago.. Slight changes..Not much..