I remember picking up 6" on a NNW/N wind when I lived in Fulton, looked just like this..
Comes off "Mexico Bay", the same way I can pick up a few inches on a NW flow..
Tea kettle usually has no wind so the snow tends to be confined close to the lake shore..
This happens when a lake-effect snow band sets up over the middle of the lake, but winds are insufficient to blow it inland (the lake "boils over" with snow)
For the most part the SR guidance did pretty good this afternoon showing the trough swings through as well as winds going NNW/N behind it, with a couple exceptions..
Rgem brother all the way...
It's almost like the lower resolution (10k) helps it a little compared to the 3k models that overdo everything, they make it like only higher elevations exist lol
We may have another CF move through this afternoon, at least that's what it looks like.. Giving everyone a burst of snow..
Each model has their own take, guess we are just gonna have to wait and see lol
Well this could be a decent one for who's ever under it..Slow meandering cutoff low giving way to secondary development that has to crawl because of HP to the north..Euro actually heads SE with the system lol
This storm has to create its own cold..
Even with strong HP just to the NE temps aren't that cold.. Which is funny because we just had a strong HP to the NE and it was quite a bit colder..
The overall upper air pattern across North
America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a
cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation.
This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with
it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday
Canadian is the first model to show the dual low but predicting a cut off low this far in advance is a tall order lol
Last night it was south of us for example..
0z euro was similar in track but warmer, mixed bag ..
Yeah looks about right here..
Was a decent bust on the NWS side of things..
Considering at one point they had 18"-24" just a few miles east of here lol