You can the difference in location wrt to the defo band, obviously this has huge impacts..
Outside of this area could be some white rain with marginal temps and lighter precip rates.. It's usually hard for everyone to win lol
Moving on into the longer term portion of the forecast...low pressure
over the Ohio Valley Friday evening will lift northeastward to about
Lake Erie Friday night and Saturday...while gradually weakening as its
energy transfers to a developing secondary coastal low along or just
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The secondary coastal low will
then continue to deepen as it moves northeastward off the New England
coastline Sunday and Sunday night...while lingering deep cyclonic flow
across our region gradually gives way to surface-based ridging building
eastward from the Upper Great Lakes.
In terms of PoPs...increasing synoptic forcing and moisture attendant
to the initial primary low and its parent upper level low will spread
increasing precipitation chances from southwest to northeast Friday
night and Saturday. In the official forecast...have reflected this by
spreading likely to categorical PoPs across far western New York
Friday night...then across the remainder of the area on Saturday. The
deep moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the strengthening coastal
system should then maintain at least a general likelihood of pcpn
areawide Saturday night and Sunday...with the precip then quickly
tapering off Sunday night as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped
away...and as the aforementioned ridge builds eastward into our region.
With regard to ptype...the precipitation may initially begin as some
light rain Friday night...with steady cooling of the atmospheric
column then driving a transition over to mainly wet snow as the night
progresses. During this transition period...a brief wintry mix cannot
be ruled out dependent upon how quickly the boundary layer and a modest
warm layer aloft cool relative to each other...however confidence in
this remains too low for inclusion in the forecast given both the time
frame and continued model differences in how thermal profiles will evolve.
After that time...the precipitation should tend to be more in the way
of wet snow through the remainder of the event...though marginal thermal
profiles may still be supportive of some rain mixing back in again across
the lower elevations during the day Saturday and again on Sunday.
While this system will be nowhere near as strong as the one that passed
through our region this past weekend...it could still bring a notable
water-laden snowfall to portions of our region from later Friday night
through Sunday...with this potential heavily dependent on the eventual
track/strength of the low and its resultant influence on thermal profiles
across our region...all of which remains uncertain this far out in advance.
At this point...it appears the best potential for such a snowfall will lie
across our higher terrain...which should run a bit colder overall throughout
the event.