wolfie09

Most of this event will be after dark.. The main batch starting Sunday afternoon, lasting through Monday morning.. According to the Nam..

This one has decent bust potential as alluded to by freak yesterday..Not that it would take much as the forecast is for an inch lol The European has 3/4" here on Sunday which is going to equal an inch because it's 33°..If we get decent rates we will do ok..

Looks like the gfs trended towards the NAM, keeping the primary stronger for longer, quick surface reflection over NJ before the primary regains control.. Not that it probably matters much lol

I know what model I'll be rooting for ..lol The rgem seems a little off with this one for whatever reason..I doubt you see that type of widespread snow on the backside...

Some D 9 Eye candy.. It's nice to see them to the SE, for now..

Euro looked decent East of lake Ontario with some embedded stronger bands on a west-wsw flow.. Timing is pretty good as well, Sunday night into Monday morning.. But you can see how marginal it is is lol I think the heavier precip rates are saving east of Ontario in these frames..

How about that rgem lol Vaild 7pm Sunday. Still in it's LR..

Just needed a couple/few degrees colder on the Ggem. But it's on it's own at the moment.

Borderline lol I was going by p-type maps.. It looks fine aloft from what I've seen.. Surface is marginal 33-34, could accumulate with heavy precip but ratios would suck.. I'm not really buying the Canadian anyway lol

CMC has become our new weenie model lol 3"+ LE imby? Lol Like half that is snow haha

I think it's more due to light precip rates and forecast surface temps are in the mid 30s (36° kfzy) .. Models have .10-.30" liquid over a 24 hr period which won't cut it lol Obviously this can change but it's what's being shown atm..

Later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night the closed low will move over or just south of the eastern Great Lakes. The associated pool of cold air aloft will move overhead, and modest cold advection will begin in the boundary layer. This will allow for a change to wet snow, first at higher elevations where temperatures will be slightly cooler, and last near the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines. The majority of the precipitation will then be snow later Saturday night through Sunday, although some rain may still mix in at times across lower elevations. The wrap around phase of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night will feature upslope enhancement across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill region as westerly flow increases in the wake of the system. While there will be orographic enhancement, the boundary layer never becomes cold enough for any appreciable lake enhancement. As far as accumulations go, the marginal thermal structure will likely keep the accumulations highly dependent on elevation. There will be virtually no accumulation anywhere through late afternoon Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday it will become cold enough across higher terrain to allow for accumulation to begin. Expect total accumulations from Saturday night through Sunday to reach 3-6 inches across the higher terrain from the Boston Hills and Wyoming County down through Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, and also on the Tug Hill Plateau. Across lower elevations, temperatures will struggle to get cold enough to allow for much, if any accumulation. Expect a coating to an inch or two of slush at most across most of the lower elevation locations, including Buffalo and Rochester. These are early estimates and may change with later model guidance.

Yup lol That's the entire event.. Kbgm map

Get ready, it's coming.. lol

Nam says what secondary lol Develops it quite late..

Nice improvements on the European..

Canadian total Snowfall, 10-1 and kuchera Granted it is over 2 day period lol

Canadian looks pretty good with the wrap around/enhancement once again..

Fwiw Which is not much at this point lol Nam shows very little liquid..

U can see where it tracks on the ukmet, just east of here.. This could save us from heavy rain and keep some of my snow pack around lol

Here is precip up to midnight Sunday when the switch to snow is occurring.. Only 0.4-0.6" liquid..The rest is wrap around over the next 2 days..

Ukmet has wrap around into Tuesday.. Obviously this is not all snow or rain.. It's funny, for a 9k model, euro sure has trouble showing wrap around/enhancement..But yet 12k-17k models have no issues lol

Temps are so marginal we can't even get 10-1 with enhancement lol

Eventually as the low along the coast becomes the primary low by late Saturday night, temps aloft settle more toward -6c and soundings indicate blyr cools sufficiently to turn most mixed precip over to snow across all the forecast area. With deeper moisture to H7-H6 in the area (as evidenced by slower trend to depart the upper low) and delta t/s to 8-9c off both Great Lakes, think a period of lake enhancement develops Sat. night and continues into good part of Sunday. Blyr wind direction from the nw will favor higher terrain over western Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario for the most snow as with marginal sfc temps this should turn into a upslope terrain enhancement event. However, with the cyclonic side of the upper low in the vcnty and cooling temps, even the lower elevation locations will probably see some snow accumulation late Saturday night into midday Sunday before temps warming into the mid 30s limit additional accums into Sunday afternoon. One of the bigger changes to the forecast was to increase pops Sunday and Sunday night, most notable over the higher terrain areas favored by nw winds.

Could be ok on the backside of the system..