wolfie09

So many vorts, the models don't know which one to focus on lol Canadian much different than the gfs..

Didn't realize it was so close lol Still a balmy 41.5°..

Wpc added kbuf into the slight probability of 4"+.

Yeah definite trend towards the NAM, still pops the secondary, over Maine lol

Looking better.. 6" line about 2-3 miles east..

Nam has on and off snow from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday and still going.. Not the heaviest but would keep it looking wintry..

The best chance for accumulating snow is Sunday and Sunday night. However, surface temperatures will marginal for snow and so snow will struggle to accumulate. Model QPF has also been a challenge, with some models and runs significantly higher than others. In general, upsloping will play a significant role, along with deep moisture associated with the upper low, and a secondary trough which is forecast to move through Sunday night. Southwesterly winds typically do not upslope effectively, and suspect some model guidance has overdone lake enhancement which should be minimal. Base don this, have hedged toward model runs with lower QPF amounts. A more WSW surface flow will support better upsloping Sunday night, and this may be when the most snow accumulates. Snowfall amounts will vary by location, with generally the greatest amounts across higher terrain east of the lakes where there will be some orographic enhancement and where it will be the coldest. Snow amounts are likely to fall in the advisory range with 24-hour storm totals in the 4 to 8 inch range at these locations. The Tug Hill bears some watching, with slightly higher amounts possible, but held off on watch headlines considering that snow will likely be wet and have poor liquid equivalent ratios. Elsewhere there will be minimal accumulation. This includes the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, I- 90 along Lake Erie, the Genesee River Valley, and western Finger Lakes. Expect only a slushy inch or two at these locations

Right where we want it..

That primary trying to hold on is just killing us..

We may hit 50° today, up to 47°..I enjoy nice days too lol

Boy the European is close here..

We are torching today, forecast high was 40°, currently 44°..

I'm liking that Sunday night/Monday morning time frame, how much accumulates who knows, but whatever..lol

Gfs drops down the northern stream and phases, the Ggem says screw that I'm gonna give you rain with just the northern stream..

This is what we need to see, at least for East-NE of the lake lol

Don't see this every day.. A nice stronger cutter day 8/9

It's not looking like a big time soaker.. About 1/2"-3/4 LE..

Temp is already up to 40° today, so I'm sure we will melt some before the rain even gets here.. The last 2 days the max temps have only lasted a couple hours, not so much today..

We are right on the border of 32/33 for most of the event..We can work with that much more than 34-35, obviously lol

This is the warmest frame on the NAM when Precipitation is just starting... Verbatim about 33°-34°

Once again not much of a secondary on the NAM..That surface track looks good to promote at least some"Westerly" flow..

Yes sir.. At the very least it should look wintry on Sunday and Monday with snow flying in the air..The next potential time period is way down the line, so this all we got for 10days lol Might as well make the most of it..

Yea I'm guessing that's due to light precip rates..Nam is colder but with a "Westerly" flow most of the day Sunday/Sunday evening, precip may be lacking some, outside of the usual suspects, the tug..

Slight chance is better than no chance.