wolfie09

NWS balt/DC Teleconnection patterns are showing the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) trending negative after the first 7 days in Feb suggesting a return to colder temperatures, but the NAO and AO are expected to remain positive over the next two weeks which not may be all conducive/favorable to an all snow event. Definitely something to watch as winter tries to come back. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=4&glossary=1&highlight=off

The Last few cycles have shown a -epo in the LR BUT Nao and PNA go to shit...

May need to sacrifice the first wave for the last as that's looking like the most potent atm..(according to gfs/ecm)

True, but thats through hr 240 which includes 3 events lol Euro had a snowstorm with wave 3..

Euro is pretty much mainly a mixed Precipitation event, next wave misses us to the east, neither event much to write home about..

3 separate waves on the gfs, pretty much all find a way to screw us, verbatim..

Well even the colder gfs has like 2" in Syracuse, mostly a mix, so that area is already toast , farther North and west who knows..

Late Tuesday though as the shortwave and associated sfc low race across the region, there is loose agreement that a quick change back to snow could be in the offing from west to east. System is high tailing it to the east by that time thanks for very strong upper jet running out ahead of the longwave trough, but could be just enough overlap of the cooling and lingering qpf to generate minor snow accums as the cold air sweeps across the region. Does not look like even moderate snow accums at this time though given the progressive nature of the system. And finally, even with decent cold air moving in behind the system for the rest of Wednesday (well H85 temps of -15c on the GFS are at least decent compared to what we have seen recently), any lake response looks to be muted due to significant dry air advection as high pressure builds in quickly. Those details could certainly change especially if the system comes in stronger in future model runs, but that is how it is looking at this time.

Tale of 2 halves this month in terms of Temps.. First half splits 39/25 2nd half (so far) 31/14 Technically the second half is still above average but it was much improved, granted we still didn't see much snow lol

Some decent ones in there, but a bunch of not so good ones as well..

Wpc copy and paste the ensembles? Lol

Eps

So the European shows very little snow for day 5-6..The snow for upstate is split between two different northern stream disturbances over the next few days.. The track goes right over kbuf cwa and we dry slot..

You can see the European was a touch to far west for us..

In other news I did get my 5th below zero night, low of -2..

Look at the improvements from D3 compared to D6.. Models get much better as we get closer, right now they are kind of suckish lol Stick with the ensembles and wpc at this point..

It's not bi polar it's called day 5-6 lol You guys just overreact so quickly.. Like the gfs is going to nail the timing of the CF 6 days out lol

This afternoon several shortwaves are rippling across the Pacific, forming eventually a stronger and deeper shortwave trough along the west coast Sunday. These features will eventually form a trough of low pressure over the Plains early next week. Cooler air within this trough will create a baroclinic boundary across the Ohio Valley separating a much warmer airmass that will reside within a Southeast ridge of high pressure. This baroclinic boundary will eventually waver through our region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a surface low passing either over or just to our south Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the placement of several features over the Pacific (and not sampled well by upper air soundings) that will need to come together over the western U.S., there understandably is quite a bit a uncertainty to the Tuesday - Wednesday time period. The cooler biased GFS would support shovelable snow across our northern 1/3 to 2/3rds of the CWA, while the ECMWF is not as far south with the surface boundary (and cooler air aloft). The majority of the GEFS ensemble members also support this stalled frontal boundary over our region though they remain with great uncertainty as to the placement. For now will continue with chance to low likely PoPs (as the surface low passes near us) during the Tuesday - Wednesday timeframe, with a mix of snow and rain.

Yeah they must be having issues .Kbgm is down as well..No OBS atm, radar or updated AFD..

Kbuf must be broken lol No afternoon AFD and no local OBS.. Looks like tonight is another below zero type of night..

As seen on the 12z gfs, potential is there for a decent event if we can time it right, which has been a bitch to do this year lol

Not that it matters 6 days out.. 18z vs 12z..

18z gfs is west. Lp goes right over us..

Wpc D7

It's hard to tell but the warm-up is ahead of a CF, u can see the temps crashing on the backside right as precip is moving in..But the euro warms us up again after several inches of snow as the surface low cuts to far west..