wolfie09

For this weekend.. FWIW

She is talking about the heaviest being over the higher elevations on the ensembles, which it is.. 6"-8' on a mean isn't necessarily great when it includes 3 systems lol

Enjoy it now because I'll be posting something completely different in 6hrs lol

The euro did have snow for the last wave but the brunt of precip misses us East..

And the next one is cutting west lol

1"-3" type of event on the euro for wave 1..Let's see what the rest of the run holds..

Canadian is pretty ugly as well.. We miss out on the first wave and the next 2 take the exact same track, just west of us.

First wave is weak crap, next 2 run inland, mix/rain..

Well the gfs sucks lol

Looks good for the last wave as well, fwiw..

The first wave is looking colder and colder on the models of late.. Mostly some weak overrunning..

Slight chance of at least 4" on Sunday for the eastern lake Ontario region into the Adirondacks. Small area of moderate probabilities..

Yeah I'm getting that vibe a little lol First system to far west and 2nd/3rd to far east.. Eps and control have the system just off of CC, which is usually a little to far east for our liking..

The control run brings the initial wave right over us and the 2nd or 3rd wave (hard to tell) through NJ into eastern portions of sne..

Only in 24 hr intervals

6z gfs was different than it's 0z counterpart which is no surprise.. First wave is all snow albeit light.. Second wave is snow to mix/rain.. Third wave is a miss to the east..

It is largely expected that this will be an unsettled period across our forecast area...but unfortunately...there is too much uncertainty in the evolution of a longwave trough over the center of the country to pin down whether we will experience several rounds of mixed pcpn or significant accumulations of snow. The pronounced differences among the various medium range guidance packages are primarily based in the handling of the aforementioned trough as it makes its way across the Four Corners area. Without getting into too much detail...the forecast will come down to how many shortwaves will eject out of a possible closed mid level low and where the axis of a tight baroclinic zone will be found downstream across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. Even the main ensemble packages have significant differences...so its not worth scouring the individual deterministic models. As a result... confidence will be lower than normal through this period. Stay tuned.

Icon was pretty far inland as well, something we still have to worry about lol

Euro also trended a little colder with the initial wave as it's mostly snow east of lake Ontario, not much in the way of precip..

Walking a fine line on the euro day 7

Gfs and icon both look solid for the last wave, which I guess is the one we should be focusing on lol

Gfs had a decent amount of precip as well but it was more snow to rain with surface temps once again marginal..(imby)

Nam is pretty nice for the tug and parts of the Adirondacks, probably just the NAM being the NAM..

Didn't realize we have the potential for some light snow over the weekend from a northern stream disturbance..