wolfie09

That's what I like to see lol Icon is always missing hours, have no idea what the storm actually does lol

Phil calls for an early spring which means dust off the snowblowers..

27° with light snow, just a coating on the ground..At least as of right now the flakes are pretty fluffy..

The entire evolution of this northern stream disturbance has changed in litterly the last 12hours... Goes to show you how bad the models really are.. NWS failed to recognize this and they still have the most snow on the tug which seems like a Longshot looking at the latest guidance..

Even the eps is SE of the European, more inline with the ukmet/icon..

Buffalo still going with the European. While there is still a relatively broad envelope of solutions concerning a large storm system early in this time period... confidence is slowly increasing that winter weather headlines will eventually be needed for at least parts of our forecast area. In the wake of this system...there is high confidence that it will become notably colder with accumulating lake snows in the typical snowbelts. Since there is still a fair amount of spread in the various ensemble members...it would not be beneficial to get too deep into the details. It would be more helpful to briefly describe the two main scenarios that are being forecast. The first...which is the one that we will lean towards...is that the cyclogenesis over the Lower Mississippi Valley will yield a consolidating sfc low that will track up the western side of the Appalachians then over or just west of our forecast area. This seems more plausible than the other scenario given the trend of the deep longwave trough to become negatively tilted over the plains. The result would be a period of snow that would spread across our region Wednesday night and early Thursday. The snow would become mixed with sleet and rain before changing to just rain for a time during the day. The second scenario is that the system will track further to the east across the Deep South before making its way up the coastal side of the Appalachians. This would be a colder solution for our area with the resulting pcpn being nearly all snow...albeit it with lower general QPF. For what its worth...the majority of the GEFS ensembles favor this line of thinking. In both cases...cold air on the backside of the storm system will return/deepen over our forecast area during the course of Thursday night and especially on Friday. Any mixed pcpn will change to snow...with lake snows blossoming east of both lakes Friday and Friday night. Even if headlines were not required for the synoptic system leading into the lake snows...there is higher confidence that lake snows would necessitate headlines as we end the week and proceed into the weekend. Finally for Saturday...a deep cyclonic flow of sub arctic air (H85 temps minus teens) over the wide open lakes will maintain at least scattered lake driven snow showers with accumulating snows still found east of both lakes.

You aint kidding Paul!! Any more west and it starts to get dicey lol

Euro cuts the Friday one..974mb north of lake Erie..

Euro has a nice front end thump with the 2nd wave on Wednesday night/Thursday before flipping to a wintry mix..

This would need to change though.. Surface in the 20s would spell some ice during the height of the system..

Really good track for WNY..

Well I'll be damned

Gfs has a lot of inland storms which we are just gonna have to deal with lol Extremely active, counted like 7 synoptic systems and a lake effect event over the next 14days, verbatim.

Canadian with a pretty big jump east.. Precip is not as heavy as the gfs but that's not important at this juncture

For giggles

Best run yet lol

We may catch a snow shower or two this evening (50% pops) east of L Ontario but it's tomorrow and tomorrow evening that has the best chance for accumulating snow (forecast 2"-4") , NWS mentioned possible headlines for the tug region..

The polar vortex has been absent from the United States for most of winter thus far, which lead to a very warm January. The Eastern Seaboard through the central and southern Plains recorded temperatures that averaged well above normal by the end of the month. The average temperature was also above normal for the interior portions of the West. February is forecast to start off with more abnormal warmth across the Plains and East, but some changes are expected as we move through the second month of the year. The colder air expected to slice into the Central states during the first part of next week may be a sign of even more brutal Arctic air that could take root later in the month. “We are anticipating that a strong push of Arctic air will take place into the U.S. during the second and third week of February in response to a displacement or weakening of the polar vortex during the first week of February,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. When the polar vortex-a pool of bitter air that often sits over the North Pole during winter, weakens or becomes elongated, the frigid air that is normally locked up above the Arctic Circle can eventually break loose and move southward. There is at least one factor working against a large sweep of frigid air into the Eastern states, especially across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. An area of high pressure at most levels of the atmosphere has persisted in the southwestern Atlantic this winter — and it has been helping to pump mild air up the Eastern Seaboard. Indications are that this pattern may continue during much of February. “For this reason, we expect the upcoming big discharge of Arctic air to target the interior West and northern Plains initially, where it might be more persistent as February progresses,” Pastelok said. While much colder air could work into the Eastern states during the middle to latter parts of February, there is some uncertainty as to how long-lasting and/or severe this may be, depending in part on the persistent area of high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic,” Pastelok said. The last significant polar vortex shift was during mid- to late-November, which triggered the cold outbreak from late November to early December. Even though a few major Arctic outbreaks in years past have reached much of the United States, it is rare for the entire Lower 48 states to be cold all at the same time. Typically, cold air will punch into one-third to two-thirds of the contiguous states as other regions remain warmer than average. So, if cold air were to sprawl over the Western and Central states, there would be a tendency for the East or the Southeast to remain warmer for a longer period of time. “No matter what, we do not see a six- to eight-week outbreak of Arctic air, which is usually what happens with a polar vortex shift, but rather seven- to 14-day cold episodes or shorter,” Pastelok said. “There can still be a couple of days and nights where cold air sneaks its way into the Southeast with a frost or hard freeze and that could be a problem with the leaf-out and blossoming running two to three weeks ahead of schedule,” he added. The warmth coming early next week is likely to increase that leaf-out anomaly. The spread of colder air into the Central states and perhaps the Northeast could set up an active storm track as February progresses. Depending on which side of the temperature contrast zone places end up, would determine where areas of heavy snow, ice and rain occur. Snowfall has generally been close to average over the heartland with a few pockets of below-average snowfall in cities such as Chicago. Much of the northern tier of the Central states has received above-average snowfall thus far with near- to above-average snow for the northern tier of the Northeast. However, a definitive snow drought has persisted over much of the central Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts. A mere 0.3 of an inch of snow has fallen on Philadelphia, compared to a seasonal average close to 9 inches by the end of January. Perennial snow spots such as South Bend, Indiana; Erie Pennsylvania; Cleveland and Buffalo, New York; have had 25 to 50% of average snowfall thus far. Very few cities have received above-average snowfall, and the ones that have are mostly in northern New England. At least for skiers, snowmobilers and snow lovers in general, there is still some hope for more of the white stuff in some of the snow-starved zone if the cold press and storm track pans out. But even if winter storms take an ideal path, there is no guarantee that storms will bring all snow. In the meantime, home and business owners are saving on their heating bills from the Central and Eastern states with temperature departures that recorded well above normal in January.

Well the gfs looked good for at least one more run.. WPC now going with a track just west of us..

The main issue for long term is determining the extent of precip, ptype and the potential (which could pose significant winter weather impacts) in the Wednesday night, Thursday and Thursday night time frame. Primary take away point is this forecast likely will change multiple times until we get much closer to the event, so continue to monitor latest forecasts and statements. Right off the top, prefer the latest and more consistent ECMWF solution with general look to pattern Wednesday night into Thursday as it meshes much better with our forecast continuity. Will steer away from latest GFS as it broke from multiple previous runs by showing little if any precip here until later Thursday aftn. Appears that as the polar jet temporarily merges with subtropical jet (yielding a 160-180 kt 250mb jet) a lot of energy and moisture (pwats over 90th percentile at BUF come 12z Thu) will aid in deepening sfc low lifting across Ohio valley toward lower Great Lakes. Expect pops to ratchet up steadily on Wednesday night starting out as a widespread snow. Eventually though warm layer aloft makes its way ahead of the sfc low, leading to less snow and more mixed precip, rain into Thursday as temps warm . There is loose agreement on this scenario, though given the changes from run-to-run in the models and the overall complicated setup with multiple shortwaves lifting across here ahead of main upper trough, confidence remains relatively low in exactly how the details of forecast will ultimately work out. Another wave of low pressure could track across the lower Great Lakes on Thursday night into Friday which ultimately changes the mixed precip back to snow before it tapers off on Friday as some weak lake effect. Or will a coastal low be the main player later Thursday night with another swath of mainly snow across our forecast area. Models and ensembles are quite unclear on this, so will keep broadbrushed forecast for rain/snow changing back to snow showers by Friday. Light lake effect snow may try to develop on Friday behind the exiting system as colder air (H85 temps of -10c or lower) prompts some lake response within westerly flow. Another shortwave working through in the base of the larger scale troughing for Saturday will bring another chance of light snow showers.

I had 7 nights were the Mercury dropped to 0.3°F or less in January and my average low was still 19° lol Average high finished around 35°..

The SE ridge is still causing some issues..