wolfie09

Because the Thursday system cuts it takes time for the cold to rush back in.. This system is right on the heels of the Thursday system..

Icon is coming in like the European for Thursday.. Probably front end thump followed by some p-type issues verbatim..

She was until we moved here lol Now I think she secretly roots for no snow..

Most important 0z runs since last night.. P.S.Shakira is so friggin hott . (Don't tell the wife)

Forecast solutions are in more agreement as of the 2/2 12z guidance package for the late week storm (Wed night- Friday.) A deepening trough will be in place across the central CONUS Thursday while cyclogenesis takes place across the southeast U.S. While previous model runs has taken this surface low across the Appalachians and even to the west of the eastern Great Lakes, it is looking more like this system will track along or east of the Appalachians before moving towards southern New England Friday. This leads to a colder solution for Western and North Central NY, however the chance for rain and a wintry mix remains at the start of the event. Due to the spread of model guidance the past few days, changes in the track of this surface low are likely. Looking at some features with this potential event, a majority of thermal profiles depict snow moving into western NY late Wednesday night and spreading northward into the North Country Thursday. The EC remains the warmer solution where a wintry mix and/or rain will move into western NY. The forcing for this initial period of widespread precipitation is associated with a strong low- level jet transporting moisture while riding over a warm front. There may be a tight pressure gradient across the region into Thursday night and Friday which could result in northern areas seeing accumulating snow while areas closer to Pennsylvania having ice and/or little snow accumulation. Winter weather headlines are possible during this initial round of wintry weather. Rapid deepening of surface low pressure is possible across the Mid- Atlantic Thursday night into Friday. This may result in another round of widespread snow with a chance of wintry mix towards inland New York State. Winter weather headlines are possible during this time. The low should move out to sea Friday night into Saturday and cold air advection will spread across the forecast area. Lake snows are likely behind this system and may result in more winter weather headlines through the weekend.

The issue is how it got there.. We need this in WV going NE not the VA coast.. System actually goes through snj and SE of CC. Heaviest snow is 100 miles NW of the Storm center, we need something west of NJ/NYC for best results..

Friday is technically a whiff as we see almost no precip verbatim.. Almost all the comes on Thursday.. Nothing to be to concerned about, yet..

Icon definitely trended colder.

Each update moves a bit more east lol

Say goodbye to the rain, at least for now..lol According to the gfs most of the events come with temps in the mid 20s... Wednesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.

I'm pretty sure that's both systems lol It's not that slow..

Eps

A feed of mid-higher level eastern tropical Pacific moisture and increasingly deep layered Gulf of Mexico inflow ahead of the approaching upper trough and favorable jet support/instability will fuel an expanding heavy rainfall and local runoff threat from the South/Southeast to the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. SPC also still shows a severe weather risk across the South/Southeast. Cold post-frontal high pressure will dig through the south-central U.S./Midwest as lead high pressure dams ahead of the system into the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Wrapback flow on the northwest periphery of the precipitation shield and thetae advection into the receding cold air over the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast will favor a heavy snow/ice swath threat. Activity will be enhanced by deepening frontal waves lifting from the Southern Plains/Gulf Coast to the Appalachians and Northeast Wed-Fri prior to frontal exit into the western Atlantic. Models and ensembles have converged more upon a better clustered forecast with this overall scenario, at least at moderate to larger scales, bolstering forecast confidence in a composite blend along with the National Blend of Models Weather prediction center..

I know lol That's why I said Thursday system

Euro is still cutting the Thursday system, nice front end thump before some light mixing..

With some rain to wash it down? Let's hope not lol

We are kinda sleeping on the Thursday system which could be a nice appetizer (3"-6")..

Totals between both systems..

Ukmet

It's about LP being to our west or over us on the majority of ensemble members..

Ukmet for Thursdays system..Few inches possible verbatim..

I'm gonna be a pretty big buzzkill right now lol

Buffalo changes over to heavy snow verbatim.. Actually transfers off the NE coast..

You would be correct..