wolfie09

Nam went from rain to barely anything lol Gfs and NAM are warmer on Wednesday night with almost no snow, not sure I'm buying that..

Wednesday night into Thursday..

It's not stopping WNY from seeing snow lol Actually the r/s line is in SW Oswego county, verbatim.. The snowiest model at 12z was the Canadian which was the warmest model to start, we almost definitely flip to snow next frame..

This was 6z this morning for Thursday.. 3 runs later

It's 84 hours out lol Might as well post hr 384 on the gfs..

18z was ok I guess lol Nothing but a mix for Wednesday/Thursday.. About 4"-5" for the Friday system between synoptic and a little enhancement.. Maybe that part could Surprise, who knows lol Doubtful this year..

Maybe these maps are off lol Because the Canadian looked the best lol It starts us off with light rain but has the heaviest snow..

Through the day on Wednesday upper low that is currently bringing the wintry weather to the intermountain west today slides east from the central Plains to northern part of Mexico. As jet energy rounds the base of this trough, increasing southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico and associated low-level convergence helps develop low-level cyclogenesis lower Mississippi River valley. There are differences in placement of actual sfc low on Wednesday evening (possibly due to the convection that will be ongoing in that region), but there is better agreement in the development of H85 low centered on Arkansas. As the northern portion of the upper trough lifts across the middle CONUS, H85 low and associated warm air advection along with some sfc wave of low pressure will head toward western Ohio valley into the lower Great Lakes on nose of 40 kt low-level jet. The warm air advection along with height falls ahead of the upper trough and exit region forcing from 160+ kt jet will aid in spreading a widespread shield of precip over the lower Great Lakes that should last 3-6 hours with best chances late Wednesday night through mid morning on Thursday. Ptype is the main question. It does look like precip arrives before the stronger warm air advection does, so snow or maybe sleet is looking more probable to start, but based on latest suite of models and GEFS ensembles a trend to warmer temps aloft eventually shows up around or after 12z on Thursday. Forecasted qpf attm would support low-end advisory level snow/sleet amounts on leading side, but if ptype is more fzra then the expected qpf would certainly cause issues. Would see more qpf from this first wave of precip if the stronger moisture advection of pwats over 1 inch was aimed into our region instead of the Mid Atlantic as models and ensembles are very locked onto right now. Timing of any wintry precip would also heighten the impact as it would affect the Thursday morning commute time. Likely we will need headlines for this initial event late Wednesday night into Thursday. Now, once the precip moves through on Thursday morning, there is good agreement there will be some sort of break in steadier precip rest of Thursday, though could see a wintry mix hanging on over northern forecast area. Tough to time this break though, so the pops will stay likely for most all day Thursday. At least based on the pattern the break makes sense as we will be awaiting arrival of main upper level trough and strong upper jet moving east from the southern Plains. Then, unlike the late Wednesday Night into Thursday time frame, there are large disagreements on extent of precip on Thursday night and ptype is also in question. GFS and GEFS peg most of the qpf over our far eastern forecast area, mainly in form of snow, while the ECMWF and Canadian-NH have qpf over most of forecast area, but are either warmer with rain (Canadian-NH) or colder with snow (ECMWF). Models have been jumping around for this time frame for a while now in terms of extent and thermally, so best to stay tuned. Finally, on into Friday, it will eventually become colder, possibly enough for lake enhanced snow as main trough axis and colder air aloft crosses the northeast CONUS whle main sfc low heads toward Atlantic Canada. Not sure how quick the transition occurs and extent of deeper moisture present, but could see the need for headlines for the lake enhanced snow. This would especially be the case into the typical higher terrain areas downwind of the lakes favored by wnw-nw winds.

Euro has a sizable snowstorm day 8 lol Always trying to drag us back in..More snow approaching from the west day 10, everything inland so a tightrope we walk lol

Canadian looks better than the gfs which is not saying much lol

BTW picked up 1" yesterday, 1/2" in the morning and another 1/2" overnight lol All melted now..

My attention is starting to turn to wed night into Thursday as the European has been extremely consistent with a 4-6 hr period of mod-heavy snow ahead of another warm front.. Keep in mind 6 hours of Snowfall has already occurred before the mixing line approaches..(still snow during this frame verbatim)..

Either way the system could drag down colder air since it's to our SE..A transfer could pull the heaviest precip east though..Cold with no precip isn't any fun lol

Another thing I'm noticing is secondary development.. We want the primary to keep going NE not transfer off the coast lol

The issue is getting cold enough behind the Thursday cutter, would be nice to see some better spacing.. Like 3-6 hours lol

Nam is notorious for playing catch up lol Looks just like the gfs did a couple days ago, by tomorrow it will be in Detroit..

I find the HWO to be pretty funny.. Nothing whatsoever about a storm lol Accumulating lake snows are expected Friday and Saturday.

Looks like a primary into Central PA with secondary development over NJ.. Which is probably why temps are slow to drop..

Good track but takes to long to cool down..

Euro for Thursday is your typical front end thump followed by dry slot/drizzle..

Gefs offer some hope..

Ukmet still with a nice Track..

Could be.. Develops a secondary..

Gfs is quite a bit west with the Friday system so far.. And it jumps off the coast lol

Gfs is gonna suck lol