wolfie09

Probably only see 1"-3" on Thursday with a little ice... Friday has the potential for 6"+

Best gfs run in a while..

Unfortunately Thursday is looking warmer but Friday is looking better...May even have to deal with a light rain in between systems..

Euro was quite a bit warmer for the Thursday event, made up for it some with the Friday event..

Little more ice than I'd like.. Surface stays in 20s verbatim..

Not a bad spot to see the Navy..

Early call NWS, valid 0z Sat..

Really close to something big on the icon..

Binghamton

Thursdays event, as of now..

Differences still present today especially with regard to extent of warm layer aloft and resulting ptype. Off the top, the GFS has trended to a very warm outlier even compared to its own ensembles from GEFS, both aloft and at the sfc. It seems to do this because it is farther northwest with its sfc low on Thursday morning. The NAM which was a cold outlier yesterday with its warm layer aloft is now much more like the majority of the models including the 00z ECMWF, Canadian-NH and WRF-ARW and NMM. That is how this forecast will head, which really won`t change the going forecast too much in terms of ptype late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Now though with a farther south sfc low, there is also trend for more precip to linger longer on Thursday from Niagara Frontier to the North Country. Could see some mixed precip over Niagara Frontier instead of just rain, mainly toward Niagara county as maxT aloft only gets above 0c there by late morning. And, for at least the far northern reaches of the North Country, it is feasible that primary ptype all day Thursday could remain snow, maybe mixing with sleet, as bulk of strongest warming aloft deflects more east than north as the day progresses. Adding to the dizzying model inconsistency for this system is the 12z ECMWF which now offers a sharp contrast to the warmer GFS and its previous runs as it trended colder over western NY, along Lake Ontario and certainly for the North Country. That ECMWF solution would probably keep ptype mainly snow in all those areas on Thursday, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle or light freezing rain if deep moisture strips away at times. Still have time to see if the colder trend holds or if it is just an aberation. Still likely will see a lull in more widespread precip Thursday afternoon, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as that is where sfc low and pocket of drier air aloft eventually slides across. On Thursday night, main coastal storm looks to miss us to the east as sfc low developing along the southeast coast quickly lifts along or just east of the Mid Atlantic states late Thursday night into Friday morning. However, the northern stream trough and right entrance region of departing jet across Quebec may support of swath of precip across much of the area. Ptype would have best chance of being snow over far western NY but could be a mix elsewhere (snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle perhaps) eventually changing to snow on Friday as deepening low lifting off the New England coast advects colder air across the lower Great Lakes. Based on good agreement from the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian-NH showing H85 temps lower than -10c and lift and deep moisture in upper trough axis moving through, it sure seems there could be a window where several inches of lake enhanced snow could occur for areas favored by nw winds into Friday afternoon. Deep moisture cuts out late so that would likely knock down intensity and coverage of the snow by evening. Overall we are still looking at the potential for headlines for what at this time looks like advisory level snow/wintry mix Wednesday night into Thursday and/or lake enhanced snow for areas favored by nw winds downwind of the lakes later Thursday night and especially on Friday. The morning commute on Thursday could be impacted by the snow and wintry mix over much of the region. No headlines yet as impact will not occur until late Wednesday night, but will continue to mention in the HWO.

Between both events..

Warmest frame at the surface..

Wednesday night/Thursday looked pretty good..

Plenty cold..

Some before this (Thursday) and some after these frames..

Ukmet looks really good fwiw..

Obviously can't be trusted in the LR, or SR ..lol

Rgem in it's LR pretty cold for Thursday..

Gfs not bad for Friday and a little bit colder for Thursday..

Little bit colder on the NAM.. Even though the clown maps have very little if any snow..

Split up the European between both events . Obviously the lake Enhancement should be higher than 10/1.. Basically two 3"-5" systems with a little rain/mix in-between..

3k Nam was pretty warm with the initial push as well..Less than an inch south of Ontario and not much more to the north of there verbatim..