wolfie09

Keep in mind global models don't do the best with any type of enhancement/LES..We clear out extremely quick on the European..

Last one I promise lol Just for some giggles..

Could be more of a timing thing with the gfs..

Friday

So I went back to look at the 12z Tracks, nothing else.. Gfs and gefs members are the northern outliers at the moment.. Nam and 3 k are the southern/eastern outliers.. While the other 3 globals look almost identical, euro/uk/Ggem.. Icon more on par with the non us models..

A better look at the members..

Pretty good agreement wrt track between the gfs and euro.. Precipitation amounts are always so hard to forecast..

First event on the European.. Even brings a little light rain to CNY on the tail end, what u gonna do lol

Total snow/sleet/ice on the rgem..

I lived in east Herkimer on rt 5.. Probably 4 miles west of little falls.. Pretty much right across the street from the old "donnas diner" lol

I lived in southern Herkimer county for 6 years and it always seemed like c/n Herkimer were getting smoked with LES lol West-wsw winds needed with elevation, winds are usually the strongest out of the west..

Warmest frame on the gfs..

TT is adding sleet/ice so it looks more impressive lol Gfs freezing rain..

We have to many models these days, no way to ever have a consensus, each differ on thermal profiles and precip output.. Just gonna have to wait and see lol

Little bit dicey at 48.. Rgem is one of the warmer models in between systems, bringing plain rain pretty far north..

Nam for round 1..

Weather prediction center day 3..

Looks good for Pauly..

I would love to see this band about 30 miles west lol

It's those damn pesky 850mb lows lol

Well if the 6z gfs is to be believed, 850s May be a little to warm when winds are out of the NNE/NE, at least at first..As we are mostly in a "lull" Once winds shift NW/NNW 850s drop to -12c to -18c

Lets outline some timing of the onset and changeover of the pcpn. The snow will start across the Southern Tier early this evening and overspread the remainder of the western counties by midnight. The leading edge of the snow will quickly work across the Eastern lake Ontario region after midnight...while the transition to mixed pcpn will start to take place over the southern Tier. On Thursday...the remaining moderately heavy wet snow will continue to change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain before completely changing to rain over the western counties by midday. Its worth noting that the pcpn over the western counties Thursday afternoon will be more spotty due to the weaker forcing and mid level drying. Otherwise...the change from snow to a mix will take about six hours from the onset. Areas east of Lake Ontario may not complete the change over to just rain...rather experiencing a longer duration of snow sleet and or freezing rain. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Another surface wave will develop across the mid Atlantic States Thursday night then move northeast along the eastern seaboard into Friday. This low will develop another round of precipitation across the area, especially the second half of the night. Developing northerly flow will pull down colder air changing the precipitation back to snow, although there are still are model differences on when this occurs. The 00z GFS remains the warm outlier, so we favored the colder NAM/Canadian solutions and went for a quicker change over with snow continuing into Friday. The general expectation is a 1-3 inch accumulation Thursday night with most of this falling after midnight with the higher amounts focused across the higher terrain. The colder solutions showing 850 mb temperatures lowering to near -14c during Friday, favoring a period of northwest flow lake enhanced snow, as synoptic moisture lingers across the area at least into early Friday night. It seems plausible that there may be a window where moderate to possible heavy accumulations could occur Friday into Friday night. The best chance to see locally higher accumulations would be from Rochester to the southern Tug Hill, perhaps as far south as the Bristol Hills and over the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Still some uncertainty to how all this will play out, but there is enough model support to issue a winter storm watch for the entire area for the potential of greater than 6 inches of snow during this time frame, with the exception of the far northwest part of the area where there should be a minimum in snowfall around the Buffalo metro area.