wolfie09

Little bit of a difference..

The RAP was that far west as well lol

Yeah, the updated clown map this morning shows 6" but P&C has 2"-4" lol I think CNY is in a good spot personally.. Plenty of evidence of a more easterly track with the heaviest snow from 81 east... Even the father west tracks of the Nam products nail this area..

Well according to the NWS this is barely an advisory Snowfall east of Ontario, mostly 2"-4" in P&C forecast, maybe a 3"-5" if you're lucky..

3k Nam for Friday, still going big.. Kbuf Because of the considerable spread in model guidance, the forecast uses a consensus approach. Forecast confidence is below average given the timeframe. For example, the NAM has considerably more QPF than most other guidance, and the GFS is considerably warmer than most other guidance. In each case, these solutions are plausible but the most likely outcome is somewhere in between

3.5" here..NWS only going with 3"-5" for round 2 here.. Hopefully NAM is onto something lol Even though the model likes to be overly wet.. Close again on the high Rez Canadian..

Foreign models are all SE of the Nam products, Ggem/ukmet/rgem etc..Be interesting to see what the European shows..

Snow just started here, 25.3°, DP 15.9°

Crush job just to the east on the high Rez Canadian.. It's doing pretty good atm with the stuff over wny, swings that threw CNY early am..

I'm not so sure it is lol

This was expected.. As mild air will still be in place early Thursday evening, much of the precipitation will start as rain, with some sleet and freezing rain possible in the far northern and western portions of the area (portions of Central New York and the Finger Lakes). Colder air then rapidly surges into the area from northwest to southeast Thursday night/early Friday morning, therefore changing any rain/wintry mix to snow across Central New York. The transition to snow will be a bit later (more towards Friday afternoon) across Northeast PA and the southern Catskills. Snow will become moderate to locally heavy at times in portions of Central New York during the day on Friday, especially between 12Z and 18Z (between 7AM and 1PM)

Vort be me to it.. Here was the 3k..

The most powerful storm we will ever see Obviously something messed up with this model today..

Total snow rgem 1.2"-1.6LE in the form of snow for a good chunk of ny state..

18z rgem..

Part 2 Thursday night an upper level trough will swing across the Central Great Lakes, with a strong surface high pressure over western Ontario Canada providing cold, northerly flow across much of our region. A surface low will be deepening as it advances northeastward up the spine of the Appalachians Thursday night, this also along a tight baroclinic boundary below 700 hPa. To start Thursday night, surface temperatures will remain around freezing across the interior Southern Tier and through the Finger Lakes, and perhaps to the southern Tug Hill region...with a still elevated warm layer aloft. This scenario will continue the threat of mixed precipitation (sleet and freezing rain) until deeper colder air from the northwest seeps southeastward. This colder air will transition precipitation across the entire region to snow by around midnight. Later Thursday night a 850 - 700 hPa frontogentic boundary will form to the northwest of the surface low. This boundary will serve as a focus for higher snowfall, that will also be enhanced Friday as a closed 700 hPa low develops over WNY. Synoptic snows Thursday night will become greater towards the east as this frontogenetic forcing increases...with snowfall rates of an inch per hour likely under this band of snow. As the synoptic snows pull out eastward Friday, a colder airmass aloft will support lake effect snow under a northerly flow. Bufkit soundings display a decent amount of moisture within the snow dendritic growth zone, and inversion heights rising Friday towards 6 to 8K feet. Snow ratios will rapidly increase within this colder airmass and additional lake effect snow will fall. Will maintain the watch as is, with potential for a half a foot of snow...with upwards towards a foot of snow possible along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario, and also the Chautauqua Ridge. To the east where a stronger frontogentic forcing will be found again here upwards to a foot of snow will be possible. Lowest amounts will be around Metro Buffalo and towards Niagara Falls where synoptic snows will be lower under less forcing aloft and also not within a favorable location for lake effect snow under a north to northwest flow. Surface high pressure will then build towards our region Friday and Friday night, with this feature and its drier air weakening the lake snows and providing clearing to the North Country. With 850 hPa temperatures dropping well into the negative teens, temperatures Friday night over a fresh snowpack will lower into the lower teens across the Lake Plain, and single digits inland. Across the North Country where skies have the greatest probability of clearing...overnight lows could drop well into the negative single digits.

Kbuf for overnight through tomorrow.. Precip first in the form of snow then changing to a wintry mix tied to the jet and warm air advection aloft quickly spreads to the northern Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes late this evening. Trend that showed up yesterday with quicker arrival of widespread precip continues, with main warm air advection driven precip sweeping across region from the southwest by daybreak on Thursday. Ptype with this initial wave of precip will mainly be snow though a mix will develop on the southern end of it as warm layer aloft (H85-H8) surges into western NY. Ptype will change to mix of fzra, sleet and snow over the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes by 12z, but then as the warm layer aloft slides more east than north, the warm layer aloft and potential for mixed precip will struggle through Buffalo and Rochester by late morning and feasibly may not reach the northern reaches of the Niagara Frontier and the North Country at all. Though steadier precip will lift through by mid morning, there will be intervals of additional steadier precip through the rest of the day as region remains within right entrance region of 180+ kt jet and along or just northwest of tight baroclinic zone. Sfc low and sfc warm front all the while will remain south of our area, though there could be increased low-level convergence from inverted trough extending north from the sfc low. Certainly could see precip taper with the occasional strip out of deeper moisture/DGZ. For now just focused the ptype based on the warm layer aloft. Seems the greatest chance of snow to freezing drizzle/drizzle would be over northern portions of the Niagara Frontier. Overall in terms of snow and ice amounts, this forecast did not change much from previous one. However, there is now some higher snow totals from late tonight through Thursday afternoon from Niagara county to the Rochester area as that part of the region may stay right around zero aloft as the ECMWF was showing ydy and now the NAM and Canadian indicate. GFS which remains a warm outlier has come down slightly with its warm layer aloft. Only change to headlines for this first portion of this double barelled event was to extend the winter weather advisory til 23z for the areas from Buffalo to Rochester, but otherwise the headlines were left intact. Morning commute on Thursday will be impacted by the wintry mix and its possible the evening commute over parts of northern Niagara Frontier could be impacted especially as the wintry mix begins to change back to snow.

Slight to moderate chance of 4"+ round 1..

I need more evidence of this, like a lot lol

Yes please.. Kinda like some of the western leaning gefs members..(even more west lol)

We all knew it was coming lol

Not that I know about Dave.. Canadian ensembles with a little more spread than the gefs..

Still a little more moisture to be had I think..