wolfie09

SR models starting to get into range.. Still have potential to be decent depending on where any stronger banding sets up, if at all .Vaild Thursday AM..

Surface looking marginal at first.. Temps do cool some but ratios will suck I think lol

Yet kbgm is playing the elevation card lol At this time, greatest snow totals look to be across the higher elevations of Central New York, Twin Tiers, and the Catskills, where 3-5 inches of snow is possible. Lower elevations of Central New York and the Twin Tiers will likely be more in the 1-3 inch snow total range. Much of Northeast PA will likely fall in this range as well, with the higher amounts in the higher elevations. Portions of the Wyoming Valley (especially the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area) look to be less than an inch at this time, with any mixed precipitation quickly changing to rain. Some light icing from freezing rain will be possible in a few spots, mainly in the Catskills. Overall, this looks to be a relatively minor event right now, especially for mid-February standards.

Still not great but the last 7-10 days of the month look a little better wrt to teleconnections.. PNA going positive Nao heading towards neutral, slighty positive.. Some relaxation with the +Epo in the 2nd half of the month..

Last night's euro..

1 hr of mixing according to the P&C forecast lol This is for central Oswego county.. Snow before 11am, then rain and snow between 11am and noon, then snow showers likely after noon. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible

Quite an early call.. Not sure why they included a little snow on Tuesday in with the wed night system.. This doesn't include what falls during the day Thursday..

Accumulating snow remains likely Wednesday night into Thursday as a southern stream system tracks south-southeast of the forecast area. Low pressure will become organized in eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday. A strong upper level ridge will slide off the southeast U.S. coast and allow strong, moisture advection into the Gulf Coast states. A upper level trough across the Central Plains will steer the low north along the Appalachians moving into Pennslyvania by early Thursday morning. A very strong jet stream will track along the leading edge of the upper level trough and curve around the top of the upper level ridge which will supply the low with strong lift in the right front entrance region. A warm front will extend west to east from the surface low, approaching southern New York Wednesday night. Warm air advection will increase in intensity as the low moves closer and snow will spread from south to north across Western and North Central NY Wednesday night. Overall, this system has been on track to move ahead of an approaching northern stream system which will limit intensification and therefore harsher conditions across the region. While models have been consistent the last few days with the low moving south-southeast of a majority of the forecast area, there remians question if there will be a warm layer aloft which will move into portions of Western NY. This would cause snow to mix with ice or rain. Using a consensus of model guidance, this period would be late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and be across inland portions of the forecast area including inland Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, in the upper 20s to low 30s. This will produce a wetter snow with lower snow ratios. Places to the north of these areas will likely see snow accumulation of 3-6 inches which may warrent Winter Weather Advisories.

Bgm doesn't sound to enthused... As a northern stream upper trough digs into the northwestern Great Lakes, a southern stream embedded wave will run out ahead of it which quickly zips our direction. Southwest flow aloft again taps Gulf moisture, and sends it up our way with forced ascent occurring via the right entrance region of a strong upper jet. Models are still exhibiting some inconsistency for the track of the resultant low pressure, though with consensus having shifted a bit cooler/further south. Much guidance takes the low through Central to Northeast PA into Catskills-Hudson Valley, but there are still some with tracks more up the Finger Lakes to Adirondacks. The one thing in common, is that thermal profiles show at least a narrow zone ahead of the low in which a warm above freezing layer aloft manages to overlap a below freezing layer near the surface; the question is where and how much, in terms of freezing rain/sleet potential. At this point a light accumulation of snow to the tune of about 1-3 inches (perhaps slightly more north of the NY Thruway) appears the more probable solution for Wednesday night-early Thursday before rain mixes for at least a chunk of the area. Patchy ice could play a factor as well but low confidence for locations; a more southern track could limit this potential considerably. There is still quite a bit to sort out on the details, but this has the potential to impact the Thursday morning commute with some messy conditions so monitor the forecast for updates.

Ukmet probably overdone lol That low in the dacks would be close to record territory.

Quick hitter on the European, probably 6-9 hrs of snow with the first system..

12z CMC and 12zGFS Keep in mind this over like 36 hours lol

Lucky we have that front coming down..lol Another bump north on the gfs.

Navy rule? Lol Ironically the farthest NW..

The impactful weather of the period will be Wednesday night through Thursday night when an accumulating snowfall is likely. Model guidance is in considerably better agreement than previous runs, but there are still differences in QPF, precipitation type, and timing. A broad area of low pressure associated with a southern branch shortwave will track from Tennessee, and then across Pennsylvania Wednesday night before exiting across the Gulf of Maine on Thursday. 00Z runs of the NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM continue the trend of not phasing this low with the northern branch as it moves by our area. This would keep the track to our south and leave it just cold enough to support snow across most of the cwa. The only exception is the western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley where precipitation will probably mix with rain at times Wednesday night before colder air moves in behind the low Thursday morning. The second part of this event will come with the passage of the northern branch cold/arctic front around Thursday evening. There is not as good model agreement with this feature, with the 00Z ECMWF slower and weaker with the boundary than the GFS/GGEM. Either way, temperatures aloft will be plenty cold enough to support a lake response which will be enhanced by moisture from a shortwave which will accompany its passage. There may be a break in the snow during the day Thursday, but expect this will quickly be followed by a burst of snow with this front. It will be MUCH colder behind this front with temperatures falling into the single digits most areas Thursday night, with below zero readings across the North Country. The rapid drop in temperatures may pose a risk for a flash freeze of any standing water on roads or sidewalks. This also will support higher/fluffier snow ratios, and may be more impactful than the first round of synoptic snows. Combined, these are likely to bring at least several inches of snow to most locations. There is potential for more, especially across higher terrain in Western Southern Tier. Will continue to highlight this potential in the HWO, although model differences suggests its too early to get too specific with snow amounts.

LR NAM FWIW 3"-5" with the initial batch, cold front getting ready to swing through..

These are daytime temps on Friday lol High pressure will then build across the region Friday night, which should provide good radiational cooling for most areas. If this pans out, temperatures should easily drop to near zero south of Lake Ontario, with lows 10 to 20 below across the North Country. The coldest high temperature in Buffalo so far this season is 20 (Jan 17) and the coldest low is 10 (Dec 19). At Rochester the coldest high is 18 (Jan 17) and low is 5 (Jan 20).

Just hit my first inch, ripping out at the moment, 28.9°.

Not bad after a little enhancement and lake effect.. Gfs was solid a well..This includes tonights system which is not much lol

Tomorrow when the system goes north of L.ontario we will flip but probably won't have much Precipitation left..

Yeah I've seen it before, didn't realize how close it was until I looked it up lol I'll be right there..

Icon travels just south of us..

A little warmish along the lake front which isn't a big deal, yet lol

Euro a little SE and colder..