wolfie09

Already 5° below the forecast minimum.. Down to 14.5° under clear skies..HRRR is pretty much all frozen/snow tomorrow, just not much in the way of precip..

The epitome of this year. Low pressure able to squeeze between 2 strong HP systems lol

I expect the forum to be like this until next winter unless we get a big one in March lol On a positive note, I have yet to use a full pallet of pellets It's been real fellas..

Not much to talk about lol After this cutter, HP will take control for a few days before another potential cutter lol Best chance for snow is via the lake behind each cutter/CF..

Forecast here is for 2"-4" early tomorrow before the flip to agua.. Possible moderate accumulations south/SE of the lake wed night-Thursday.. Wednesday night the lake snows will again intensify, especially across Lake Ontario where an upstream connection will return. A WNW flow along the long axis of the Lake, increased surface convergence and lake induced equilibrium levels rising towards 7-8K feet will bring moderate lake snows along the shoreline of Monroe...and inland across Wayne, Cayuga and southern Oswego. There are still some uncertainties to the low level wind directions, but advisory level snows will be possible south and southeast of Lake Ontario. We will highlight this potential in the HWO.

Some lake effect potential behind the CF.. Cold air advection will continue Tuesday night as another cold front crosses the region, reinforcing the cold air advection, this will cause 850H temperatures to drop to the -12C to -15C range by Wednesday morning. With the cold air advection and some synoptic moisture still available, a lake response will begin downwind of the lakes. As of right now, snow looks like it should be light through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before additional cold air advection and an approaching trough for later Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 20s, with a few locations east of Lake Ontario in the teens. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday through Thursday a broad longwave trough will become established from the Great Lakes to New England. This will bring a few days of below normal temperatures to our region, with Thursday likely being the coldest day. General WNW flow aloft will combine with increased lake instability to produce a few rounds of lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes. It remains too early for any details, although the pattern would suggest a better potential for accumulating lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario, with a lesser potential off Lake Erie. The best setup appears to be Wednesday night through Thursday morning, when an upstream connection to Lake Huron may tie into the Lake Ontario band. Lake effect snow showers will continue through Thursday night southeast of the lakes. High pressure and the onset of warm advection will then bring an end to the lake snows by Friday, with the start of a warming trend and period of dry weather that will likely continue into next weekend.

Well for me here, east of Ontario it's about damage control. Two days ago it was mid 40s and Rain..Now the European has 4"-6" in a 6 hr period and then we dry out. Should hit mid-upper 30s behind the warm front for several hours before the CF comes through..

I'm thinking the Canadian guidance is to cold but it's what they show lol

Still looks better towards the end of the month.. AO starting to head downward.. Which I guess it has no other choice lol

This system Tuesday is in and out in like 6 hrs lol Nam doesn't even have any rain.. Temps max out in the mid 30s for a few hours before the CF swings through.. I-81 east with a few inches verbatim..

WRT seasonal Snowfall ksyr is doing the worst followed by kbuf.. Binghamton, Albany and Rochester are doing ok compared to average..

Average splits for the first half of February were 31.6/16.7.. What's funny is I have only had below freezing max temps 3 out of the 14 days lol Yet my average high for the 2weeks is below freezing..Shows how deceiving Avg temps can be. Overnights have been a torch for the most part, 9 of the 14 lows in the 20's, a few negative and single digit nights have skewed the mean the other way lol I finished the second half of January at 31/13, so the last month hasn't been terrible from an average standpoint..

Kbuf for next week.. Cold air both at the surface and aloft will hold longer east of Lake Ontario. Model point soundings suggest precipitation will begin as snow, with several hours of accumulating snow Tuesday morning prior to a change to mainly rain in the afternoon. There may be several inches of accumulation, especially east of I-81 and near the Saint Lawrence River where surface temperatures will stay at or below freezing the longest.

Only 300 hours out lol Not many other threats before this..

A model that usually runs pretty warm is surprisingly cold for next week. Should be some cold out ahead of this system with HP slowly retreating..

Looks like our high temp was recorded at midnight, 8°, had a day time high of 6.8° and back down to 5°..

We didn't clear out till about 4am, so I "only" got down to -6.5°..

Newest map

The NWS calls it a NW flow Even though its more of a N-NNW flow, at least according to the gfs.. Just like when they call a WSW flow"Westerly" lol

The wind is due north, so unless you move the lake over me your screwed

I'm thinking the NWS going to bust high again wrt low temps.. Forecast low is 0..I have been dropping about 4° an hour under cloudy skies and light snow.. Down to 13°..

Temps starting to crash , winds due north .

So close yet so far lol Sometimes as much as 150"+ difference in this little span.. Must be nice to have elevation and sit in a perfect location.. With that being said I receive enough snow in an average year, I just miss the most of anybody lol

Here are the statistics for N Redfield.. Quick math off the top of my head says 140"-145"..

Some are doing better than others, still well below average..