wolfie09

Nws updating the archives, only 2 events so far for 19-20 lol Obviously the one we just had is not up yet.. The only decent one here all winter, fell in like 4 hours lol

Gfs with a really nice hybrid system for CNY, transfers much quicker than the European..

European looks pretty damn good, with lake effect lol Keeps the primary stronger for longer.. As good as your gonna see from this model lol

Canadian actually turned out decent for Kroc-ksyr with some enhancement...

Canadian is rain-snow with the primary over lake Erie and secondary development near philly.

Verbatim the GFS is actually pretty good for mby. Obviously the storm track will determine the direction of any enhancement..

Gfs had some nice enhancement east of the lakes but that's about it lol 12z icon wasn't the best either..

Up 31° in about 4 1/2 hours lol

Wpc D 6

Snowing pretty good at the moment, big fluff bombs, maybe I can eek out a quick inch or two lol

Obviously can't see in-between frames as it may cut before redeveloping.

NWS hardly even mentions the synoptic part of this system, it's all about the enhancement off the lake..I wish the gfs would of continued north like the European instead of transferring off the coast lol As we head into mid to late week, 00z models continue to advertise a developing large scale mid level trough which is poised to dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. This will maintain the likelihood for precipitation across the area. Temperatures will trend colder by Thursday as another shot of at least modified Arctic air filters into the area, bringing the potential for lake-enhanced snows.

Down to -4 overnight.. Nws forecast was for 8° lol Are we losing another one? Lol

I should add that it's pretty good for wny (kbuf) verbatim and parts of eastern L Ontario into the dacks. Clown map is actually pretty similar to the gfs, which will look different in a few hours..lol

Dr NO not great, cuts through CNY verbatim..

Yeah I'm bored lol Once it gets passed our latitude it should be in no hurry, which would be a nice change for once lol If these features actually exist lol

Gfs with another rain-snow bomb... Very similar track as 12z, not as good verbatim but who cares lol

Eps

Another area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains as the northern jet dives southeast across the Rockies and phasing of the northern and southern jets cause the surface low to form. This northern jet diving south and strengthening the upper and mid level trough will also bring colder Canadian air south into the lower 48 states and eventually to the Northeast. The area of low pressure will continue to strengthen as it tracks toward the northeast. Guidance is in fairly good agreement with the track and timing of the system, with the low tracking over the area from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon and lake enhancement/effect after the system passes to the northeast. Where guidance is not in agreement is the strength of the system over the region, the GFS brings the pressure down to 974 mb over the Saint Lawrence Valley and the ECMWF down to 995 mb for the same location. Precipitation type will be dependent on temperature which guidance is still currently spread on, but as of this writing, snow looks like the most likely p-type.

Yeah I'm at 84", not sure how..lol I was hoping to hit triple digits by the start of March Down in the city of Fulton right now, seem to have this strange white stuff falling from the sky..

12z icon was rain-snow..

We have had a ton of systems cut this year but the majority have also transfered off the NE coast.. Which is probably why I haven't had one enhancement event this year lol Last year my 2 biggest LES events were behind cutters/apps runners, so yeah lol

Ukmet is straight cutter. Canadian is similar wrt Track as the gfs but weaker..