Another area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains
as the northern jet dives southeast across the Rockies and phasing
of the northern and southern jets cause the surface low to form.
This northern jet diving south and strengthening the upper and mid
level trough will also bring colder Canadian air south into the
lower 48 states and eventually to the Northeast. The area of low
pressure will continue to strengthen as it tracks toward the
northeast. Guidance is in fairly good agreement with the track and
timing of the system, with the low tracking over the area from
Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon and lake
enhancement/effect after the system passes to the northeast. Where
guidance is not in agreement is the strength of the system over the
region, the GFS brings the pressure down to 974 mb over the Saint
Lawrence Valley and the ECMWF down to 995 mb for the same location.
Precipitation type will be dependent on temperature which guidance
is still currently spread on, but as of this writing, snow looks
like the most likely p-type.