wolfie09

Canadian has the secondary the dominant low but it doesn't help us much with the synoptic precip. The clown map for the lake effect portion should be fun. Lol

I was at 10.6° at 630 am and now 44° at 1130 am.. Feels nice lol

Kbgm Models have trended faster with the anticipated midweek system. This brings cold air advection in Wednesday night instead of waiting until Thursday, and also includes an opportunity for rain to change over to wet snow late Wednesday-early Thursday as the system lifts through and then out of the region, before pattern transitions to more of a lake effect regime for Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Details on this system itself continue to be sketchy with run-to-run timing and strength differences, and this will need to be worked out in coming days. Chances for a brief snow accumulation on the back side of the system Thursday morning will generally be higher for northern portions of our region, but cannot be ruled out further south as well especially at higher elevations. In the wake of the system, gusty cold west-southwesterly winds are anticipated Thursday afternoon, veering more westerly Thursday night-Friday; then west-northwest Friday night-Saturday. This occurs within broad cyclonic flow around an upper low slogging through southeastern Ontario to southern Quebec; vorticity lobes rotating around it could cause wind shifts/redirections of lake effect activity. Accumulating lake effect snow appears probable for parts of Central NY during the late Thursday through Saturday period, but locations and details will become better assessed as we get closer to that timeframe.

I actually think the mean wind flow will be out of the WSW, which sucks for most of us including me lol I'll probably be the transient zone as the winds veer NW and possibly become mult-bands... Hopefully I'm wrong but probably not lol

Forecast overnight low here was 21, I made it down to 11°..The last 3 nights the NWS has been off by 12°, 15° and 10° lol They don't know the climo here lol My overnight projected lows are usually only 1° colder than Fulton..Two nights ago I was at 5 and Fulton 27° lol

A strong low pressure system is expected to move northwest of the area later in the week. This system will bring in much colder air and the potential for accumulating lake effect snow. At this time, the more notable accumulations Thursday into Friday appear to be east of the lakes, then shift southeast of the lakes later Friday into Saturday.

Gfs is trying lol

Ukmet That's at 10-1.. This model likes to go mode..

That initial low on Wednesday is not helping matters lol The whole trough is to far west.. It's also hard to get snow with all the ULLs to our west..

Nws has decent pops across the board for the middle-late portion of next week, not just for us west fans lol Wednesday Night Rain before 4am, then snow. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

It's that time of year

Potential is there, wether it is realized is another story lol Ukmet is just getting started..

Long duration lake effect event on the Canadian.

Gfs spreads around the wealth more so than the European, as winds eventually turn NW as the system is moving away.

We are getting to that time of year when one day can be 60 and the next 20 lol I'm just hoping we can run into a big one in March lol I don't care how long it stays on the ground.. Gfs loves to throw bombs out..It's always 10-14 days away

Euro was probably feet of snow east of the lakes, especially the tug, I have never seen it show 8-9 frames of pretty much the same wind flow, at least since I've been in Oswego county..

Yeah I didn't want to have to rely on lake effect lol But I guess now I do...I was rooting for a gfs like hybrid scenario...

0z euro never transfers, straight up cutter, couple days of LES verbatim..Gfs also seemed to trend that way but not a as impressive with the lake effect..

Seems to be a nightly theme.. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Basically 2-3 days of wrap around/Enhancement, gfs is actually probably to low with precipitation verbatim. The icon was more in the Euro camp with straight up lake effect more so than enhancement.

Another solid enhancement event on the gfs, not as good as 12z but solid lol

Gefs members

It's really not much different than the Op as the secondary rides up the Hudson valley..Still some changes coming with this one, obviously.

Sometimes I wonder about the NWS.. Since when does a closed Low over Quebec promote lake Enhancement SE of the lake? Lol Granted they have 80% chance of snow on Wednesday-night through thursday night but the wording doesn't make much sense lol A robust shortwave crossing the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will dive southeast across the Intermountain West on Monday. As we progress through the heart of the new work week...this energy will help to carve out a deep longwave trough that is eventually forecast to evolve into a large closed off storm system over Quebec by weeks end. While this will support a prolonged period of unsettled weather across our region...the trend for the resulting surface features has been to shift to the west. This will favor more rain for the FIRST HALF of the event Tuesday and Wednesday...then as cold air deepens on its backside...widespread accumulating snow can be anticipated for Thursday and Friday. While this snowfall could result in some slick travel...SIGNIFICANT impacts will likely be confined to the lake enhanced areas southeast of both lakes.

Looks euro like, with a late transfer.