wolfie09

Pretty impressive considering it's the European and at 10-1.. Probably would be 3-4 feet for Carol..

Yeah a colder solution is possible But the NAM is notorious for throwing to much Precipitation into the cold sector, like the last event in the SE lol Hence the phrase Nam"ed" lol I'm pretty sure this didn't verify..

Definitely a little bit colder compared to 0z.

Canadian definitely more WSW than previous runs, but most should get in on the action off Ontario as winds slowly veer from WSW-NW..

Ukmet with some decent synoptic snow over WNY , heck of a nice lake effect band as well, especially considering it's at 10-1...By tomorrow evening we should start getting into SR guidance time..

Every run gets me a bit more excited, even though we don't know the mean wind flow lol But we are getting closer, slowly lol Any decent synoptic snow would be a bonus..

Gfs is trying lol Not as much Precipitation in the cold sector like the Nam, which is no surprise lol

Nam still sticking to its guns lol 6"-12" before lake effect even starts haha..

Already 48° as of 930 am lol

Speaking of the NAM, this model should be banished lol

Just in case the NAM is right which it isn't lol

Euro not much in the synoptic department, little down towards SW NY, main wind flow is out of the WSW with some variations..

It's an elongated low, so not sure what to expect lol Later Wednesday and Wednesday night the deepening and elongating surface low will bodily lift northeastward across our region

Starting to get more interesting for sure.

18z gefs

Anything from the synoptic system would be a bonus east of Ontario as the lake effect is the real story..GFS has very little from the synoptic system but plenty of lake effect.. Only 3-4 more days

Later Wednesday and Wednesday night the deepening and elongating surface low will bodily lift northeastward across our region...with an attendant shot of moderate to possibly heavy rain out ahead of it then giving way to lighter wraparound snows as progressively colder air wraps into our region following its passage. Later in the night the airmass looks to grow cold enough to support the development of some lake enhanced or lake effect snow east or east-northeast of Lake Erie...with the combination of this and the lighter synoptic snows likely producing some minor accumulations by daybreak. Meanwhile... the developing cold advection regime will help to send temperatures back down into the mid to upper 20s across the far west...and to the lower 30s across the Finger Lakes and North Country. On Thursday the surface low will continue to make its way northeastward across Quebec Province...while maintaining a deep cyclonic flow of much colder air across our region that will feature 850 mb temps falling into the negative mid teens. Within this environment...lingering wraparound moisture and energy attendant to the main upper level trough will promote at least a likelihood of some light snow pretty much everywhere... while increasing lake effect/lake enhancement will also help to promote better organized (and potentially significant) lake snows downwind of the lakes. The above said...this far out in advance the available guidance unsurprisingly continues to suggest a fair amount of uncertainty in wind direction (and resultant lake band placement)...with the degree of band organization that we might see also uncertain given the likelihood of at least some disruption from strengthening late February diurnal influences...which would tend to favor any lake bands becoming more cellular and less organized at least for a time. With the above in mind... have just continued to highlight the potential for headline-worthy lake snows within the HWO for now. Otherwise temperatures will continue to slowly fall given the ongoing cold air advection...with readings dropping off into the 20s areawide by late in the day. Coupled with brisk west winds...this will result in wind chills dipping into the teens. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Potentially significant lake effect snows late in the week... By Thursday night, temperatures aloft will be plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow with 850mb temperatures around -17C. There also will be ample moisture in place with a mid-level low forecast to slowly pass to our north before moving into southern Quebec through Friday. Expect the steadiest lake snows to occur in the Thursday night and Friday timeframe. The challenge is wind direction, and this is where subtle model differences will lead to big differences in the timing and location of snow. In general terms, the best chance for lake effect snow will be in the snow belts ENE of the lakes Thursday night. On Friday, a potential Lake Huron connection and a more westerly flow suggests the heaviest snows may be across the Tug Hill and areas east of Lake Ontario. There is potential for more than a foot of snow at some locations, but it may take several more model runs before there is ample confidence in timing and location for headlines to be issued. Will continue to discuss this potential in the HWO. There will be less synoptic moisture as the mid level low moves slowly eastward Friday night, but model guidance suggests a secondary shortwave will pivot around the back of this either Friday night or Saturday. This will provide a temporary moisture infusion. Also, with a weaker synoptic flow there is more uncertainty in wind direction, with a consensus suggesting a generally northwest flow during the period. This would bring the steadiest snows southeast of the lakes. This shortwave and associated moisture will exit to the east Sunday, with lake snows diminishing. With 850mb temperatures near -20c there still is a risk of tea-kettle type snows if a convergent band develops Saturday night. Depending the exact wind direction and timing of the second shortwave, it is possible that significant lake effect snows will continue through Saturday night, but these are likely to be more localized. One thing to note is that the higher late February sun angle could disrupt banding during the daytime hours

LR NAM doing what the other guidance tried to .. granted its the NAM at 84 hours but its plausible if the secondary develops quick enough.

Hit 50° today lol All windows now open..

Same for the gfs

Just miss out on some decent synoptic snow on the European..

Good luck figuring this out lol

Ukmet is also a crusher with 14"+ at 10-1 and still going... Obviously not gonna get my hopes up lol Any change in track can alter the wind field..

A man can dream right? Or pray? Lol