wolfie09

What a beauty 1.5" + LE all enhancement/lake effect and euro doesn't usually show lake effect well lol

Through the synoptic portion

Here is the mean up until Thursday afternoon when the synoptic should be over..Gefs have terrible resolution and can't be trusted with enhancement/LES, obviously lol

Ukmet is a crusher for almost all of Oswego county, west-wnw flow unlike the Canadian which is west-wsw.. At 10-1 ukmet Kuchera Ggem

Starting to get into rgem time for me, about 25 mm by 12z Friday as the band fluctuates between west and wsw..

Wow lmao

Here was the 6z global and regional Canadian.. You can see some differences in where the enhancement starts off, global more Westerly while regional more WSW..Nam has been going back and forth between Westerly and wsw.. Meanwhile the European models have very little WSW and keep it mostly west-wnw, crushing central Oswego county..

You will get in on the action as well bro, flow will turn WNW later Friday into Saturday. Global models look pretty good out that way as well fwiw.. Obviously not as much as the tug but that's to be expected lol

Winter storm watch issued.. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

Solid hit on the European for wny.. Sold with the lake effect as well..

Ukmet is a pretty nice synoptic hit for WNY and a huge lake effect hit east of Ontario..Has almost no synoptic snow for CNY..

Gfs wants to get everyone involved fwiw Between synoptic, Enhancement and lake effect.

The systems are pretty much working together..3k has over 6" at 10-1 and 4"-5" kuchera fwiw .

Nam is just silly with 1-2 feet east of Ontario by Friday morning lol

The primary will be swinging a CF through, once that happens it should be cold enough for snow even with the system to our NW..How much Precipitation is left is another story. The presence of these waves greatly complicates the forecast, as the waves may force the front to take on more anabatic characteristics with steadier, heavier precipitation developing on the cold side of the frontal zone.

Between that and including sleet/ice as snow makes TT almost unusable. And it's probably done on purpose lol Keeps the weenies around and gives out false hope like JB and WB..If pivotal can take out mix Precipitation as snow so can they lol The WB kuchera is way higher than Pivotal, probably programed by jb himself lol

Wpc

Gfs was actually pretty good for kbuf, using kuchera about 10" by 12z Friday..

Kbuf A very complex synoptic evolution will then unfold Wednesday night and Thursday. The sharp Ohio Valley trough will deepen further, and take on a negative tilt as it phases with additional shortwave energy diving into the western portion of the trough. The surface low will move northeast across Lake Erie Wednesday night, moving north of Lake Ontario by Thursday. The associated cold front will cross our region slowly from west to east Wednesday night, with most of the operational guidance suggesting one or more baroclinic waves running northward along the advancing front. The presence of these waves greatly complicates the forecast, as the waves may force the front to take on more anabatic characteristics with steadier, heavier precipitation developing on the cold side of the frontal zone. Expect a period of widespread precipitation Wednesday night with the passage of this system, generally advancing from west to east across the eastern Great Lakes. Forcing is very strong, and the system will capture an impressive plume of deep moisture with Gulf of Mexico origins. The quality of moisture and dynamics coming together will produce a general 0.50"-0.75" of liquid equivalent across the region Wednesday night. Precipitation type will generally be rain ahead of the front, then transition quickly to wet snow behind the frontal zone from west to east overnight. There may be a period of accumulating wet snow in some areas behind the front, although amounts will be highly dependent on the fine details of how the aforementioned frontal waves develop. Temperatures never get as warm east of Lake Ontario, and its possible some, or even most of the precipitation may fall as wet snow across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks, even on the warm side of the frontal zone. The potential for accumulating synoptic snow Wednesday night will need to be watched closely in future model runs, given the complexity and strongly forced nature of the system. Cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday as the surface low deepens further across the Ottawa Valley. General wrap around snow showers will continue as the deep, closing off mid level trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Lake effect/lake enhanced snow will also develop east of the lakes. Given the proximity of the upper level low, there may be some shear initially that inhibits band organization. Even so, lake enhanced and orographically enhanced snow will likely produce moderate accumulations across the higher terrain east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. It will also be quite windy Thursday, with wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range common across the region. Advisory level gusts in excess of 45 mph are a possibility. The wind will also produce significant blowing snow where accumulating snow is falling east of the lakes.

Kbgm Low pressure is forecast to track E-NE across the Ohio Valley Wednesday and eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a secondary low will develop to the south of the primary low near the lee of central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Models continue to differ in handling the interaction between both systems Wednesday night and Thursday (e.g., How quickly and to what extent does the primary low weaken and transfer its energy to the secondary low? Do they remain two separate low centers or merge together?) but the spread continues to decrease as we get closer to the event. Wednesday...Light rain (possibly mixing in with snow across the southern Tug Hill) along a warm front will lift northward during the morning Wednesday. There is a potential lull in precipitation across most of the area underneath the dry slot during the day. Wednesday night...The forecast has trended slightly slower with the arrival of the main slug of precipitation along the cold front, which is now expected to overspread the area from the southwest Wednesday evening. QPF amounts are between one-half and one inch for this event. Early Thursday...Westerly flow in wake of the cold front will yield strong cold-air advection late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There are some differences in the models to note regarding how quickly the cold air arrives relative to how quickly the precipitation shuts off, which contributes to the uncertainty in the snow potential on the backside of the system. The general consensus is for a narrow window (only a few hours) of accumulating snowfall at the tail end of the event after 06Z and before 15Z. The current forecast calls for around an inch across the higher terrain of CNY and 2-4 inches for the northern Oneida County. A reasonable high-end snow scenario (where the arrival of the colder air is quicker than currently depicted in our forecast, but the precip is slower to exit owing to a deeper secondary low tracking just to our south/east and a more negatively-tilted upper trough) is still on the table. This is represented by the latest 90th percentile snowfall guidance, which shows an advisory-level snowfall for the Twin Tiers/Finger Lakes/Catskills and near warning-level accumulation for the southern Tug Hill. Thursday afternoon...Temperatures will struggle to rise much throughout the day on Thursday (steady in the lower to mid 30s) as cold- air advection offsets the daytime heating. A brisk west wind gusting 25-35 mph will yield wind chills in the teens and 20s, serving as a reminder that winter is not over. Additional lake- effect/upslope snow showers are expected during the day but accumulations should be minimal with convection generally disorganized/cellular. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Cyclonic westerly and eventually northwesterly flow around the backside of the cutoff low will keep us in a cold and cloudy pattern with lake-effect snow showers persisting through at least Saturday, if not part of the day on Sunday. We will have to monitor the potential for an organized LES band to develop downwind of Lake Ontario Thursday night-Friday morning. However, with a 260-270 degree flow in the boundary layer, this band may only brush the northern fringes of Oneida County (or remain north entirely) during its peak. A 260-270 degree flow would also place the Twin Tiers in a favorable area for lake-effect snow showers downwind of Lake Erie on Friday. Updated PoPs accordingly to account to highlight these two areas. Snow showers off Lake Ontario will eventually expand/shift southward later Friday and Saturday once the flow veers out of the NW.

It's going to be close wether we can flip over to a wet paste job..

Mentioning a bit of synoptic accumulation as well.. A strong low pressure system is expected to move across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall over southern Quebec Thursday through Saturday. Rain Wednesday and Wednesday evening will change to wet snow later Wednesday night, with some accumulation possible. Precipitation may be wet snow for much of the time across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks, with moderate to heavy accumulations possible.

Some really nice members in here. Keep in mind gefs hasbhad an extreme cold bias this year so hopefully we can get some more OP models onboard, surprises definitely possible.

Yeah those winds scare me a little lol Usually I would think more of an upslope component but models insist on a single band structure, which is what I obviously need lol So we'll see, I'm always secretly waiting for something to go wrong..lol

I have been waiting a while for something like this in the short range..lol Winds do go WNW all day Saturday and NW all day Sunday fwiw.. Surface temps are between 20°-25° the entire event with 850mb temps between-15c and-18c , so for once not a marginal event lol