wolfie09

Boy that's close for kbuf, during the heaviest Precipitation..

Yeah looking at the P&C it's all rain for the synoptic system, they have 70%-90% pops from Friday through Saturday night which is what they are banking on lol

Binghamton seems a bit unsure lol There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how broad or narrow the Lake Ontario band develops...and also the exact position of the primary axis. If the flow backs even slightly to the south, this will lift the band further north and out of northern Oneida County. At this time it appears the southern fringe of the band will pose a persistent threat for heavy snow over far northern Oneida County Thursday through most of Saturday. Given the amount of uncertainty, have decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for a long duration heavy lake effect snow event for northern Oneida during this time frame. We have also decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida County starting a bit later...Friday morning...and going through Saturday. There also still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the southward movement of this band, but confidence continues to increase that when it does occur, this area will see a period of heavy lake effect snow which could impact travel conditions going into the weekend.

Could pick up some bonus NW Flow high ratio stuff day 4 as well (lol), as it may be more mult-bands/enhancement rather than a single band..

A little to North for my liking D2.. Granted it still looks good lol That would be a sharp cutoff just a few miles to my south in the town of Altmar..

Going to be fun trying to get the old lady to work Friday am lol Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. Temperature falling to around 25 by 11am. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 1am, then areas of blowing snow after 3am. Low around 15. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before noon. High near 26. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Kbgm map

Euro was also a nice hit for WNY.

It's impressive when even the gfs throws out 2 feet lol Was one of it's better runs yet.. Good hit once again for WNY..

Wow they went even bigger haha I was expecting the opposite..

I hope the band is a little wider than this lol

Ukmet is pretty meh for the synoptic event, still looks really good for the lake effect event..

Yeah definitely more WSW than it's Previous run but still a big time hit with 2'+.. Which is what the NWS is calling for..

I for one am not rooting for a farther SE track, I'll take the rain lol No need to mess up the flow..

Looks good for wny

Monmouth county has actually been a little JP zone (relatively speaking) the last decade or so..Keep in mind LT average for Freehold NJ is 23"..They can get some fierce bands off the Atlantic and be just inland enough to be snow.. The last two years have been terrible though. 2009 - 2010, 74.2" 2010 - 2011, 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 38.2” 2013 - 2014: 73.3" 2014 - 2015: 54" 2015 - 2016: 40.9" 2016 - 2017: 28.7" 2017 - 2018: 62.9”.

Quite a bit of overall Precipitation..

Still a big hit for WNY but much more reasonable lol Last run had over 2 feet at this juncture. Obviously more to come.

I can just imagine what some of these SR models are gonna show lol 3k Nam basically has 14-24" from me to the tug just by 1am Friday, NWS has 90% pops through Saturday afternoon..

Probably about 13-14 miles WNW of where you will be, just south of Richland/Orwell

You guys better not bring me bad luck Destroyed on the Nam, good 2-3 feet and still going..

First map of many..

12z Nam had almost 7" for kbuf using 10-1 , euro at the same time had 10"..So a good 6"-12" seems possible.. The biggest difference is central NY where it's much colder like the gefs..16 of the 20 members had at least 6".. Let's see what 18z shows..

It's about 500 mb which has nothing to do with verbatim lol just like verification scores mean very little when it comes to sensible weather..

.Eastern Half of North America... Preference: Blend of 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET Confidence: Average Gradual phasing of northern and southern streams will lead to mature cyclone development over the northeastern U.S. and southeast Canada by Thursday. The then-mature, full latitude trough will occupy the eastern U.S. for another day or two. The models are all generally agreeable aloft. The main deviant model, as noted overnight, was the 00Z Canadian with its more fully developed coastal low. This corrected on the 12Z run, although the Canadian now lifts the primary low center farther northwest into Quebec compared to other guidance. Most solutions do have a semblance of a double-barrel low, with the primary tracking into Quebec, and another low attempting to form along the coast from Maine to the Canadian Maritimes. In the 12Z cycle what stands out is a sudden and stark deepening trend in the GFS, which takes the primary surface low down to 983 mb at 28/00z. The 12Z GEFS mean supported this to a degree, and even the ECMWF did offer a deeper surface low than before, but the GFS is more greatly developed at all levels, producing 500-mb heights that are 60 meters colder than the other models on Thursday. The GFS gets there by means of a sharper, more energetic wave emerging from the southern Rockies this evening. Although 500-250 mb observed winds were impressive at Albuquerque and Amarillo this morning, there does not appear to be anything especially impressive about this wave, and the fact that the NAM - whose bias is strong and deep - does not support this trend, perhaps speaks volumes. We therefore prefer the NAM along with the consistent ECMWF and UKMET.