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wolfie09
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Everything posted by wolfie09
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Honestly don't think your gonna need a Yard stick lol It's hard to ignore what guidance is showing.. If they are correct the band stays north of us the entire time until tomorrow afternoon when it quickly sweeps by lol The best part of this event will probably be till this afternoon with lake Enhancement.. The northern portion of the Tug Hill on Friday morning looks likely as earlier model guidance trended a bit north with the band and that scenario still seems to be favored
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Yeah I was in Pulaski last night, was a lot of Grass showing, hopefully they covered that up for you lol Radar is a little outdated since it's not updating but you can see the enhancement firing up..
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Some moderate snow falling, temp down to 26.4°, max wind gusts has been around 20 mph..I'll be keeping an eye on that wind direction for sure lol Currently 256° WSW. .
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It's going to be close.. Just a slight deviation in track could cause winds to turn more Westerly.. High Rez Canadian keeps the band just to our north, to bad the band wasn't a little wider lol
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Add in a couple globals.. Gfs much more Westerly than previous runs..
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So I have a couple models to hang my hat on this evening lol
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Wpc D 1 Pretty much the synoptic+enhancement
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Doesn't look to bad for the backside of the synoptic system and a little enhancement, by 1 pm tomorrow..
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Once winds veer NW that band sweeps through most of us..
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Looks about right, foot, foot and a half if I'm lucky..
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SR models aren't fully in range yet, wait till the 4am update lol I can't wait for spring so I can actually sleep..
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Yeah, I'm wondering too lol Can't really take the European at face value but it had like 1/3" LE for Ksyr, 0.4"-0.5" for kfzy.. I see about an inch and swva 1.25", little bullseye of over 2" on the tug.. Ratios better be decent and not get ripped apart by that wind lol
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They cut back on totals but not by much..
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Best lodging option around here is the tailwater lodge by Hilton in Altmar if u don't mind spending the money..But that may be a little to far south for this event...
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Just don't stay at the red carpet inn lol For various reasons, if u haven't heard it almost burnt down, cooking goat meat, that's how we do it in the country.
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Expect big changes with the snow map lol Thursday night went from 15-21 to 3"-7". Lol During the day went up slighty from 5"-9" to 6"-10..
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Little bullseye of 2feet at 10-1..
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NWS has a high end of 48"-60" right over Carols house lol (litterly) They have a low end of near 2 feet here and expected 36"+
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Idk how you forecast this lol What is it 2 miles wide?
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Arw with it's big time southern bias looks good..Push everything north by about 20 miles lol No way the Fulton area has 2 feet by Friday morning lol
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Definitely has huge bust potential as the NWS has 20"-30" by Friday morning lol This is a tough forecast for swva.. Granted still more to come, maybe lol
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Nws has the main flow WSW D1 of the event, it's not till Thursday night the fun starts for us Westerly folks..
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Or maybe not lol
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Here was the 12z NAM.. I'm thinking 12"-18" is a good call not 30"-36" or 48" lmao Maybe up by Carol.. Even the btv4k has most the heaviest to our north...
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Soon this will be a Watertown event lol Hard to go against the rgem which has been mainly wsw from the start..I learned my lesson last year lol
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