wolfie09

Not much difference, noise..lol

Rgem pretty much solid for all..

Primary gets pretty far north on the NAM.. Icon like..

Starting to really thin out lol Some patches of grass forming in the front yard.. Should be no more after today's 50s and rain..It was a nice run lol

..Winter Headlines Possible Thursday Night through Friday... Thursday will be mainly dry as a light northerly wind persists across the region. Flow in the mid-levels becomes southerly and warm air advection begins from south to north across the region Thursday. Temperatures remain cold at the surface with highs in the low to mid 20s and low 30s across the far western Southern Tier. The pattern becomes amplified Thursday night as a shortwave trough tracks across the Plains. A dual upper level jet structure will aide in further development of surface low pressure over the central/southern Appalachians while a secondary low forms off the east coast late Thursday night. Increasing moisture will occur across New York State while warm air advection increases. A widespread snow fall will move into western NY late Thursday evening and become widespread across western NY overnight. Snow will likely reach the North Country late Thursday night. As warm air continues to surge northward 850mb temperatures will approach 0C across the far western Southern Tier by Friday morning. The primary surface low will move into western Pennsylvania while the 850mb low is over Lake Erie. There might be a window of a few hours that mixed precipitation moves into locations near the NY/PA border Friday morning. For Thursday night, a widespread 1-3 inches of snow is possible across the North Country to the Finger Lakes and Niagara Frontier and 2-5 inches south in the western Southern Tier Thursday night. Lower confidence in snow totals across the western Southern Tier due to the chance of a changeover to a wintry mix. More precipitation expected into Friday, see below. The approaching shortwave trough will move overhead Friday while the primary surface low over western Pennsylvania phases rapidly with the coastal low. An intensifying upper level jet over northern New England and phasing surface lows will shift deeper moisture and large scale ascent rapidly to the coast. Snow will continue Friday as an easterly moisture fetch persists across the region. Cold air will wrap around the surface low resulting in lake enhancement by Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Any chance of a wintry mix across the western Southern Tier Friday morning will quickly end as cold air moves into the region later Friday. Additional snowfall accumulation of a few inches is possible Friday-Friday evening. Winter Weather Headlines are possible from Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures will reach the 20s across most of the region Friday with some low to mid 30s near the NY/PA border. Cold, Friday night with temperatures in the single digits across the region. Lake effect snow will continue on the backside of this system Saturday and Saturday night. Snow showers will likely start south- southeast of the Lakes Saturday and move northward into Saturday night. Another shortwave trough may move into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday resulting in another chance for snow showers across the region

Nam still adjusting lol Even though it does send the primary to the NY,/PA border...TT back up..

Lol... Euro does hold on to the primary longer..

Ratios would be less than 10-1 with this look lol Need a bit of luck, good luck..

It was some improvement from yesterday which had 1/4"-1/2" liquid..

I'm not sure if this has a chance to phase or kick lol

18z GEFS had a few less mixers..

Icon and GFS both came in a little south compared to their previous run..

I guess not that long lol

How long till tim brings up the extra inch of enhancement?

Not sure if these count sleet..

We just made it to the forecasted high of 46°, well on our way to 50° lol

Here was the Canadian which takes more of a southern route/quicker transfer..Still a solid moderate event, rates just wouldn't be as strong..

It's close..Those maps may include sleet..

Canadian is the southern outlier of the 12z runs so far, we'll see what the euro shows shortly..

Ukmet was about 4mb stronger this run..