wolfie09

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

New map starting 7pm this evening.. Looks like they are starting to get off the sauce..

Still going, some of the heaviest I have seen this year.. Little over an inch in the last 25 min.or so..

Huge fluff bombs falling right now, to bad it will be short lived..

Yeah not 1 piece of guidance has anything like that lol Maybe for the tug but that's about it..

Lol WTF

Salmon River Falls in Orwell..

The usual NW flow mood flakes here, takes about 10 min to hit the ground lol Sitting at 13°..

Spotter reported a little over 5" at 1ish, we have had light snow since, maybe another 1/2"-1" of fluff.. New map which includes the rest of this event+the front..Still some disagreement amongst models on wether the line will stay intact...

They don't seem that impressed.. This is counting some that has already fallen.. Some lake effect expected overnight though.. Lake snows will pick up late this afternoon into evening with the most concentrated snow southeast of Lake Ontario between Orleans and Oswego counties. An additional 2-4 inches are possible tonight. Dry air will lowering inversion heights will limit lake snows east of Lake Erie however 1-2 inches are possible through tonight. Lake snows will diminish east of Lake Erie by Saturday morning. Lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario will retreat towards the Lake

This event should take Fulton over 100" on the year(ts forecast) and Mexico COOP is approaching 110".. Still a bit below average but better than most of us in Oswego county lol

Totals as of this morning.. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

Lake Ontario must be over 200" this year..

Several runs last night including 0z..It had the primary getting into CNY with some mixing for the sizzle..

The HRRR was the only model to bring mixing into southern Oswego county, to my knowledge..

Well that changed quickly lol Snowing pretty good out now..

Just under 4" here, doing nothing now, 23°..

Snow started a little while ago, 21°...

Main items of note from observations upstream late afternoon into this evening indicate overall theme of going forecast remains in tact. Still looks like a bit more QPF occurs in the 06z-09z/1A-4A time frame over the Southern Tier. Ptype remains a tough diagnostic issue, mainly in terms of how far north mix will get over western NY. Overall, seems warm layer is farther north than expected in Ohio with CLE reporting FZRA as ptype most of the evening, sometime as a mix or other times exclusively. Initial signs of this into NY is the wintry mix that is moving across Southern Tier currently ahead of schedule (see BFD reporting FZRA now). Another more stout warm layer is expected to lift across Southern Tier overnight and already introduced more FZRA/PL or even just strictly FZRA to the forecast to account for this. Still appears that cutoff for snow and sleet will stay south of the Thruway, but it will be close. Period of most ice would be after midnight, maximized along and south of Southern Tier Expressway/I-86. Heaviest snow over western NY (snowfall rates 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour) occurs after 08z and runs through 14z, so the morning commute will be difficult for both BUF and ROC metro areas.

That was actually a somewhat normal winter Matt, it just snowed everytime you left lol I recorded 175" in Altmar.. It's actually the last solid year this area has had lol

Man the rangers goalie this year is having an historic season..He has to be the favorite for the vezina trophy..To bad the rangers D sucks besides fox lol So far this season Igor Shesterkin is 25-5 with GAA around 2.00 and a ridiculous save percentage over 940%, I think the record is 944%..

Still looks like we could be dealing with a little downsloping, just not as pronounced as the NE wind..The same brick wall tombo deals with on a westerly flow, I deal with on an NE/E flow lol

Not much has really changed TBH, all the meso-models have 0.5"-0.75" liquid which is what the NWS and WPC have.. Ratios should be better as one heads north..

That was expected, "should" blossom overnight, we'll see lol

Yeah better watch that mix line lol Hrrr brings it into CNY for a couple hours at the tail end..