wolfie09

Case in point..lol

Rgem in typical fashion gives us 2"+ of liquid precipitation by Friday Eve before the band lifts north.. Unfortunately thermal looks marginal for beginning of this event..

AccuWeather 4-6 feet..

Maybe first 30s of the season? Edit : "officially" Coop came in at 39° on the 15th.. Thursday Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 60. West wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Sunday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.

Severe threat tomorrow..

Pretty dead in here lol Get ready to enjoy some fall like weather..

A strong mid-level trough will drop out of central Canada and cross the Great Lakes from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. As this trough tracks across these areas, it will deepen, and a strong sfc low will develop out ahead of the trough. With the developing sfc low, a trailing cold front will begin to cross the Great Lakes, including the Buffalo forecast area. Model guidance is all over with the timing of the crossing for this strong cold front, from anywhere from the early morning on Thursday to the late evening on Thursday night. The change in airmass from in front to behind the passing front will be tremendous with 850H temperatures crashing from near 20C down to near 0C in the matter of approximately 9 hours or so. Widespread showers (and at least a chance for thunderstorms) can be expected ahead of and with the front passing. With 850H temperatures expected to drop as much as they are, a lake response down wind of both lakes can most certainly be expected; but the finer details will need to be evaluated as we get closer in time (such as equilibrium heights, synoptic moisture, etc.) to know how strong of a lake response there will be. Temperatures for Thursday will be highly dependent on the timing of the cold front passage, if its later in the day, then Thursday will will likely be well above normal again, and vice versa for an earlier passing cold front.

And we know who to thank..lol

A taste of fall Thursday and Friday..

Meteorological Fall has now started across the region. It won't feel like Fall today though, as temperatures will climb to within a few degrees of 80. The Climate Prediction Center suggests that mild weather will dominate this Fall season, as their three month outlook suggests above normal temperatures for the three month Fall season.

Looks about right lol Pulaski is +2.2° but doesn't include the last few days... +0.5° for the summer...

Crazy lightning with this..

You know we are getting there when we start to hear "lake effect rain".. Even cooler air aloft arrives tonight, supporting the chance of a few more lake effect showers. The best coverage of showers will be east/southeast of Lake Ontario where better synoptic scale moisture/forcing will be found. Expect a band of lake effect showers to reach peak organization over Oswego County and the southern Tug Hill by late this evening, then break apart into scattered showers that drift south to areas southeast of the lake overnight as boundary layer flow veers northwest. Off Lake Erie, less available synoptic scale moisture and forcing will likely limit the lake response, with scattered showers across the higher terrain east of the lake peaking in coverage mid to late evening before ending overnight.

The pattern will amplify across North America during the midweek period, with a ridge building in the west and a sharpening trough digging into the Great Lakes and New England. The trough will bring a much cooler airmass into our region later in the week, with the change in airmass marked by a strong cold frontal passage on Tuesday. The surface cold front will still be west of our region Tuesday morning across Ohio and southwest Ontario, although a pre-frontal trough and possibly a few remnant convective outflow boundaries will support showers and scattered thunderstorms across our region through the morning hours. Coverage of showers will increase from west to east through the morning and early afternoon as the cold front moves east into the area, and as DPVA/height falls spread into the Lower Great Lakes ahead of the digging trough. A plume of high quality Gulf of Mexico moisture will be drawn northward ahead of the trough, with PWAT values approaching 2.0" just ahead of the cold front Tuesday. The combination of ample moisture and increasing forcing will support fairly widespread showers along and ahead of the cold front Tuesday, peaking in coverage from late morning into the afternoon. Extensive clouds and showers starting early in the day will inhibit destabilization, especially across Western NY. There may be a better potential for a longer rain free window from the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Relatively modest 20-30 knot deep layer shear may support a few isolated strong storms in the afternoon with gusty wind potential, if sufficient destabilization occurs over eastern portions of the area. Any thunderstorms or heavier convective showers will produce locally heavy rainfall given the high PWAT environment. There appears to be enough steering flow and eastward cold frontal push to limit residence time of heavy rain over any one area, keeping the flooding risk relatively low (but non- zero). Showers and scattered thunderstorms will taper off from west to east late Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold front. The mid level trough axis and associated strong vorticity maxima will cross the lower Great Lakes later Tuesday night. The trough itself may produce a few spotty showers. Cooling temperatures aloft combined with very warm late summer water temperatures may produce a lake response, with lake enhanced showers over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario later Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings suggest enough instability over the lakes to support some thunder potential as well. Wednesday any remaining lake effect showers in the morning will mostly end, although there may still be a spotty shower east of Lake Ontario into the afternoon. Wednesday night, a secondary cold front and another shortwave will cross the Lower Great Lakes. The influx of even cooler temperatures aloft, some added synoptic scale moisture and ascent, and convergence along the secondary cold front will bring a renewed chance of lake effect showers over and east of the lakes, with a chance of some isolated thunder as well.