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mattinpa

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Everything posted by mattinpa

  1. mattinpa
    I certainly would not stop tracking - this is one of our hobbies and it is still possible in an active pattern that something produces - but I definitely am not taking anything seriously until it gets to around 5 days or less.
  2. mattinpa
    I think Allsnow is correct - when you need so much to go right on the models to give us snow, we should temper expectations. Still, it is nice to finally have a chance, and there look to be more chances after..
  3. mattinpa
    I would not say “no shot” this far out. Especially if it is a coastal and bombs out like some runs say.
  4. mattinpa
    So pretty to look and better get a good look - the 0z could be all rain the way things flip. I am happy that a consistent long range window seems to be showing up.
  5. mattinpa
    Thanks for the explanation. That image confused me with the L off the coast.
  6. mattinpa
    I think we can get a couple significant storms in there. At least the GFS shows some coastal potential after next weekend.
  7. mattinpa
    Got between 1 and 2 inches, for the first real snow of the season. Now light freezing rain.
  8. mattinpa
    I always enjoy your posts. The LR doesn’t look great on the GFS but there is still cold in between storms. What do you think are the chances one of those storms gives us significant snow?
  9. mattinpa
    One thing we’ll have is the cold being entrenched for a few days. GFS sometimes looks good - I know the GFS loves long range snows - but some recent runs have even had a Miller B working out. Guess cautiously optimistic is the way to go? Glad you agree we can at least get 1-3” out of this next storm.
  10. mattinpa
    Do you think this still looks like a 1-3” event for the region? Even an inch would be my biggest, sadly. I think the systems after this one may have more potential.
  11. mattinpa
    The totality of things still look good, but it is something we will watch to see if it is a trend.
  12. mattinpa
    No worries. I was just confused because we have had a lot of nice storms over the last decade.
  13. mattinpa
    Still too far out to know it will be a non event. With the low placement, there is no way we are getting a big storm, but it is worth watching. For a time we have had a lot of storms work out. The last couple seasons have been different, but we have had luck over the past 10-15 years.
  14. mattinpa
    I think we may do better than NYC with this one due to starting sooner. I wouldn’t go 6-12”, but 2-4”/3-6” looks possible.
  15. mattinpa
    Even a 2” storm here would easily be the biggest so far. Just some snow showers seen here in Royersford.
  16. mattinpa
    True but neither is the warmth locked in through Jan. IMO. Though it sounds like the MJO forecast needs to get better to have more confidence in the cold. Don has good write ups on that.
  17. mattinpa
    I actually like temperate weather, but not during the heart of winter. The OP GFS looks cold from mid month on, to find one good thing.
  18. mattinpa
    I have to get used to it, but otherwise I like hints of winter in November. I hope the pattern doesn’t shift to give us a warm Thanksgiving. I like cold best for the Holidays and for snow.
  19. mattinpa
    True, but in my region we were tracking tornadoes on Halloween and 90s not that long ago. A wintry pattern is refreshing to me.
  20. mattinpa
    I had sideways sounding rain and possible straight line winds earlier tonight. Luckily, it was quick.
  21. mattinpa
    Wow I thought it must be because of the perception that early snow leads to mild winters. Any snow would likely be minor in nature, but personally I’d be fine if the cool down leads to a touch of snow.
  22. mattinpa
    Well, I didn’t there would be an October 90 reading, and I was wrong. I was thinking how long it had been since locations in the PHL and NYC areas had had an October 90 degree reading, plus how the models were fluctuating on where the big heat would be. But abnormal has now become normal. Have to keep that in mind.
  23. mattinpa
    Temp is high at 92 degrees, but with the low humidity and breeze it doesn’t feel like a summerlike 90 degree day here.
  24. mattinpa
    Congrats Anthony and good luck. Hopefully that was the last 90 degree day today until at least May. I am so ready for crisp weather.
  25. mattinpa
    Enough of summer. Time to feel like fall!
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