mattinpa
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Everything posted by mattinpa
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Well it was right with the gloomier outlook for some with the December storm, so yes there’s a little nervousness. But I don’t think I will change my 12+ inches call unless there are further changes. The HRRR isn’t in good range yet for when the transfer comes.
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Only the NAM has it that far NE as far as I know.
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Any details? Seriously I would throw it out. The others would have trended by now if the NAM had a decent chance of being right.
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Please don’t worry now. The best snow will be tomorrow when the coastal gets going.
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GFS just sits there off the coast of DE for a long time. Should be good.
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So you do feel that the NAM is too low. We can definitely agree then.
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But I think you have to go to the other models when they are all so different than the NAM. I really don’t expect only 3-6” here.
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Oh my! That made me forget about the NAM quickly.
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Sounds colder and may be beginning to get an idea. Won’t worry if the rest of 0z is still super.
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Great list but could you put in a Montgomery County location?
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And Montgomery County looking good for 12+ inches. This should be the best kind of storm where there are good totals region wide.
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This post from the MA forum really says it all: “Use the NAMs the way they’re supposed to be used. And nailing the precise physics of coastal transfer, cyclogenesis, and cold conveyor belt development is not it”
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So everything looks on track at 12z so far. Heard the GFS was a bit low on QPF, though. Is there a snow map for it?
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Yes it is better for a lot - DC gets a better thump and there is less mixing in my region. But NYC really makes out on this run.
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It looks warmer than other guidance but definitely not north of 6z. Maybe a little south.
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Guess there’s always a chance it will be one of those fairly rare storms where all the models sniffed it out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro did that.
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I did because it was pointed out. I don’t see much of a question there though, lol. Huge storm on the run.
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Just incredible! The only negative is I don’t know if that run will be matched again for this storm.
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Yes it hits the whole region with 7-14”!
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Thanks. Looks like shaft line goes right through my area.
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Do you know where the shaft line sets up on the RGEM?
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Looking better for sure
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But can’t they still tell us if the GFS might have been a little south/east? It doesn’t take much change to make a difference here.
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Someone in the NYC forum said GFS ensembles are west. Anyway looks good for at least 4-6” but depending on banding and location of transfer, we still could get 12+”.
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It just had to send me to sleep on a sour note, lol.
