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mattinpa

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Everything posted by mattinpa

  1. mattinpa
    Yes but it’s getting better every run. Finally looking more like the other models. Hoping there’s still some trending to go.
  2. mattinpa
    My heartfelt condolences go out. I also know what you are going through. My dad died of colon cancer in 2018, and we were very close. While he didn’t like snow like I do, we had much in common. It’s still really tough for me. Very sorry to hear about your loss, and enjoy the upcoming storm for him.
  3. mattinpa
    So would we be seeing 10-1 ratios? Or could it be higher?
  4. mattinpa
    So does Kuchera do well in the current conditions for the storm?
  5. mattinpa
    Much better. Needs to get going a little sooner to bring those huge totals west..
  6. mattinpa
    I’ve seen Kuchera ratio but what about the regular snow map? Near that high? Anyway trends are better for at least a medium sized event for the region.
  7. mattinpa
    Things are actually good at H5 on the Euro, so there’s room for better. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for more than 3-4 inches here, but still some time especially when little changes mean a lot.
  8. mattinpa
    No one talking about the 6z NAM? It looks pretty good to me from the NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance maps.
  9. mattinpa
    Cutoff is pretty sharp N&W, but the improvement is the big story.
  10. mattinpa
    Could the GFS still be right? Yes. But odds definitely got better tonight for a good snowstorm.
  11. mattinpa
    Looks great for NYC and even decent for those more west
  12. mattinpa
    Wow what a comeback tonight. Interest is very high again!
  13. mattinpa
    I had a fairly good feeling when the Euro would not back down completely. GFS seems likely to change for the better but we won’t know until tomorrow how much snow.
  14. mattinpa
    Didn’t quite end up what we wanted but worlds different from 18z.
  15. mattinpa
    The Euro going east tonight would be concerning, but I think tomorrow’s runs are more telling.
  16. mattinpa
    That’s what I noticed. It goes to around the BM but unlike the Euro/NAM, develops late. We’ll just have to keep tracking.
  17. mattinpa
    Little more west and the NW burbs will be right in the thick of things.
  18. mattinpa
    Night! I am not too worried about some wobbling today. If all models are far from a hit by 0z tomorrow, there should be some concern.
  19. mattinpa
    I think everything is on the table, but it’s looking more like we get something. Should be fun to follow. The 12z Canadian was actually a bit west for comfort for some.
  20. mattinpa
    There’s potential enough that a model keeps “seeing” it - just different ones so far. Still a couple days to see it there is any movement.
  21. mattinpa
    Thanks for this analysis. It sounds like the Euro was good enough to still keep a close eye on the threat.
  22. mattinpa
    We need both models and mets. The models to help guide forecasting, and the mets to evaluate and adjust.
  23. mattinpa
    Yes I’m surprised it is that high. Some of it could be sleet?
  24. mattinpa
    Unfortunately, it looks like high winds close to the coast will be the story with this one. But we’ll likely see more chances.
  25. mattinpa
    Above 2.5 inches would be my biggest of the winter. Can you explain what is making the storm hook back west? Is it lack of a blocking high? Thanks MJO.
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