mattinpa

No one talking about the 6z NAM? It looks pretty good to me from the NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance maps.

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Crazy uncle is a SECS/MECS with high ratio 

 

Cutoff is pretty sharp N&W, but the improvement is the big story.

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It's an outlier right now. A big one at that. 

The GFS/GEFS has a progressive bias. It blew chunks on the cutter especially the GEFS.

Could the GFS still be right? Yes. But odds definitely got better tonight for a good snowstorm.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc

Looks great for NYC and even decent for those more west 

Wow what a comeback tonight. Interest is very high again!

I had a fairly good feeling when the Euro would not back down completely. GFS seems likely to change for the better but we won’t know until tomorrow how much snow. 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

To be fair that was a pretty nice run 

Didn’t quite end up what we wanted but worlds different from 18z.

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah you're right about that. The GFS/GEFS does have a progressive bias which matters significantly when the goalposts are so narrow.

Big Euro run coming. It just needs to hold.

The Euro going east tonight would be concerning, but I think tomorrow’s runs are more telling.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It wasn't but the precip was skimpy.

That’s what I noticed. It goes to around the BM but unlike the Euro/NAM, develops late. We’ll just have to keep tracking.

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

A benchmark storm with a tight core gradient yeah let's not I thought we were done with those kind gives the NW people nightmares.

 

Little more west and the NW burbs will be right in the thick of things.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Time for bed

Hoping for a good Euro and 6z runs

Night and happy tracking 

Night! I am not too worried about some wobbling today. If all models are far from a hit by 0z tomorrow, there should be some concern.

25 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Regarding the weekend threat, I think it’s foolish to be confident either way on the effects to the area. Probably won’t get a decent read on it until 00z Thursday. Right now leaning towards a miss SE just based on the seasonal trends but it’s close to being amplified enough to get good snows here. Fact is the models have struggled with the N stream all winter long and until those pieces are on land and properly sampled, I don’t think anyone can say definitely this is a miss or apps runner. A few minor changes to the N stream changes the outcome significantly. Will be a good tracker though but I don’t think anyone should become emotionally invested until we get much closer. Would be nice to get this one though after all of the misses this month including in one of our more favorable regimes. 

I think everything is on the table, but it’s looking more like we get something. Should be fun to follow. The 12z Canadian was actually a bit west for comfort for some. 

There’s potential enough that a model keeps “seeing” it - just different ones so far. Still a couple days to see it there is any movement.

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later.  The Euro is not bad. It holds serve.

WX/PT

Thanks for this analysis. It sounds like the Euro was good enough to still keep a close eye on the threat.

We need both models and mets. The models to help guide forecasting, and the mets to evaluate and adjust. 

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Euro 12Z....better than nothing.

Yes I’m surprised it is that high. Some of it could be sleet?

Unfortunately, it looks like high winds close to the coast will be the story with this one. But we’ll likely see more chances.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's way better than we we have gotten 

Above 2.5 inches would be my biggest of the winter. Can you explain what is making the storm hook back west? Is it lack of a blocking high? Thanks MJO.

Sorry to hear about your loss, snowman. I too have been impacted by cancer. My dad died of colon cancer in 2018. It’s a horrible disease and I am very hopeful we get a cure.

Total here - big zero. Painful to miss but hope other opportunities are near.

Birds clinch and models looking better for tomorrow. A good night! 

6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Yeah, I seen it but he did mentioned there's uncertainty for Monday but was more excited for snow on Fri

Meanwhile Ch6 has zilch for Mon and 37F and rain for Friday next week...maybe some snow/mix.

Yeah the local weathers tend to do that. If we keep seeing the trend though a few inches in the northern suburbs are possible. 
 

38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's definitely still trending north but is it too late?

Might not be for a few inches. Right now big changes are needed in a short time for more than that.

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all! Here’s to having a better pattern in the New Year.

Also, Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all. Too bad it will be another mild one.