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Gravity Wave

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Everything posted by Gravity Wave

  1. Gravity Wave
    At this point I don't think we're looking at 1 band that's just going to sit over an area, there's going to be a series of heavy bands rotating in and moving north. The largest looks like it'll come through in midafternoon.
  2. Gravity Wave
    Ignore the Ptype depiction on the HRRR. I checked some soundings and it's all snow through the end of the run (5:00 PM) for everyone Nassau and west.
  3. Gravity Wave
    4Z HRRR has 2" of liquid equivalent in the city by 5:00 PM tomorrow.
  4. Gravity Wave
    HRRR didn't have anyone in the City reaching the 3" mark until about 2:30 this morning. No question this is overperforming so far.
  5. Gravity Wave
    Last update was 11:51, which was 5 minutes before I went outside.
  6. Gravity Wave
    2" on the UES with moderate snow and really nice flake size. Looks like the radar is filling in in CNJ, should provide a great base for the CCB to do its damage tomorrow. Another thing to note: KNYC has reported a total liquid equivalent of .11" since the snow started, and I assume that they have the same accumulations I do (the castle is about a mile to my NW). This would indicate excellent ratios, which isn't a surprise given it's only 22 degrees here at the moment.
  7. Gravity Wave
    I grew up in Allentown and know the pain of barely missing out on huge snowstorms; we got fringed a ton when I lived there (Jan 2005, Feb 2006, Dec 2009, Feb 5-6 and Snowicane, 2010). Glad to see the NAM improving for everyone out there, good luck!
  8. Gravity Wave
    Yes, but I'm not putting much stock in hour 18 of the HRRR.
  9. Gravity Wave
    Latest HRRR has the city (minus SI) reaching an inch of snow around 11:00 PM. Looks as though we should beat that.
  10. Gravity Wave
    Finally steady snow on the UES.
  11. Gravity Wave
    Light snow on the UES.
  12. Gravity Wave
    15" for NYC on the new GEFS, and that with three 6" whiffs mixed in.
  13. Gravity Wave
    Growing up in Allentown the old timers would always talk about that storm before 96 and 93, even though 96 ended up dropping a few more inches.
  14. Gravity Wave
    NAM is east of the other models with the low, good news for NYC and LI.
  15. Gravity Wave
    That makes sense for LI but it seems like the city proper should be able to stay snow under the CCB with any change over occurring as precip lightens and the dry slot approaches.
  16. Gravity Wave
    I think the deform band will set up along a MDT-ABE-NYC-ISP axis, much as the Euro shows. RGEM is too far south and west with the heaviest snows.
  17. Gravity Wave
    Love how the "blend of models" has a lower amount for NYC than any individual model.
  18. Gravity Wave
    RGEM holds serve with the CCB decaying over I-95. Hopefully the NAM was just a hiccup, the 850 low track seemed difficult to believe.
  19. Gravity Wave
    I'd be more concerned about the Ukie if it hadn't been the most inconsistent model for this storm.
  20. Gravity Wave
    GFS is usually too dry for big storms, I don't think this time will be the exception.
  21. Gravity Wave
    Perhaps but it's looking significantly better than its 18Z run so far.
  22. Gravity Wave
    Hello there
  23. Gravity Wave
    Would love to see the UKMET rejoin the party in a few minutes.
  24. Gravity Wave
    I agree that the GFS and CMC have weird precip shields. Hopefully we continue the trend towards a clean phase. Edit: Just saw the CMC phased and blew the CCB up for a long duration event.
  25. Gravity Wave
    Finally a storm that doesn't look like it's doomed from the start. Excited to see what kinds of solutions the models spit out over the next few days.
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