Jump to content

Gravity Wave

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,165

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Gravity Wave

  1. Gravity Wave
    Starting a storm in NYC with temps at 34 or higher is a kiss of death 9 times out of 10.
  2. Gravity Wave
    In the end the heaviest banding did set up over the city, it was just that it was much weaker than anyone expected and wasted on the UHI during the middle of the day (with the exception of NENJ).
  3. Gravity Wave
    Even if the banding and accumulation doesn't improve around sunset, the real losers of this storm are EPA (widespread 4-8 and 6-10 calls which turned into virtually nothing). Even CNY fell a little short of expectations with a widespread 8-12 rather than the 10-16 which had been forecasted. SNE is at risk of a pretty significant bust as well.
  4. Gravity Wave
    It's sticking on roofs and open ground where I am just east of Times Square.
  5. Gravity Wave
    The dirt at the construction site across the street from me is starting to whiten. Flake size is looking good.
  6. Gravity Wave
    Wow at that convection off the coast.
  7. Gravity Wave
    Yup, really picking up now.
  8. Gravity Wave
    Yup, snow has started here as well. Radar is really filling in now.
  9. Gravity Wave
    Light drizzle in Midtown, should see it flip when the rates pick up.
  10. Gravity Wave
    Very encouraging trends for the area tonight. I'm still going to be surprised if the city gets past the 6" mark but it's very possible if that banding parks overhead.
  11. Gravity Wave
    Mostly snow now with a little sleet mixed in in Chelsea.
  12. Gravity Wave
    Sleet/rain mix in Chelsea. Might be transitioning more to the sleet side as I write this.
  13. Gravity Wave
    The marginal temps (and lack of a truly cold antecedent airmass) are keeping me from being optimistic about this storm in the city. Unless the CCB parks overhead like the NAM showed we're going to struggle to get more than a slushy coating anywhere. Even in the NAM scenario we'll lose quite a bit of QPF to melting on contact. 6" is the absolute ceiling for the city IMO (not including the park where melt is less of an issue).
  14. Gravity Wave
    Heavy rain in Manhattan despite the radar showing only scattered showers in the area.
  15. Gravity Wave
    Very impressive, especially given the far greater UHI effect now compared to back then.
  16. Gravity Wave
    Between the air temperature and the wind it was very uncomfortable being out and about in city today. I wish we could get more classic fall days (clear with highs in the 50s) but fall seems to be becoming increasingly abbreviated with all the AN Septembers and Octobers and BN Novembers.
  17. Gravity Wave
    To be fair, the "good" pattern last year was on the weeklies beyond 2 weeks. It never showed up on the OP models and kept getting pushed back on the weeklies. First it was late January, then 1st week of Feb, then President's Day, and then it finally locked in just in time to ruin the spring.
  18. Gravity Wave
    The pattern over the past few years has also been that the Arctic sea ice recovers much less rapidly in the Alaska/Chukchi Sea area compared with the rest of the arctic, which I imagine will help keep sustaining that positive anomaly off Alaska. Could this be a self-reinforcing cycle that will contribute to a more sustained western ridge/eastern trough pattern over the US during the winter?
  19. Gravity Wave
    If the GFS is right we'll keep building on that negative anomaly for another week after that. Moderation comes around the 20th.
  20. Gravity Wave
    The solar minimum definitely helps, and should continue to help for the next few winters as well.
  21. Gravity Wave
    Still holding together pretty well...
  22. Gravity Wave
    Lots of flash flooding reports in PA with this line. 2-3" being dropped on saturated ground in a short period of time.
  23. Gravity Wave
    This outbreak today isn't going to be a joke from the Mid Atlantic. Second straight year with a big autumn severe outbreak in the region after last October's tornado outbreak in PA.
  24. Gravity Wave
    I think this has been discussed a lot on here before but isn't the general consensus that the sample size of winters with notable October-November snowfalls for the NYC area is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions about how such a winter will turn out?
  25. Gravity Wave
    OK, thanks for the update.
×
×
  • Create New...