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Gravity Wave

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Everything posted by Gravity Wave

  1. Gravity Wave
    Three years ago today: the "bomb cyclone" drops 10" of snow in NYC with whiteout conditions in the late morning and early afternoon.
  2. Gravity Wave
    Virtually no wind here at my parents' house in Allentown. I'm hoping to see some good gusts before bed.
  3. Gravity Wave
    A few thoughts: - The models overestimated the front end because of the rapid advance of the dry slot, but they mostly underestimated the back end so total in the metro area largely met forecasts. -The NAM was correct about the major warm punch at the upper levels but got trounced by the HRRR at the boundary level. - We were lucky to get anything with the system tracking the way it did, let alone 8-12 inches. The WAA event last December dropped a slushy inch in the city before switching quickly to sleet and rain due to the lack of an arctic high. - The meso models didn't lock in on the I-88 corridor as the jackpot until under 24 hours before the onset of the storm, and before that they had been pretty consistent with a jackpot 50 miles south of there. Disappointing for many in the Hudson Valley, NNJ and NEPA.
  4. Gravity Wave
    Keep in mind the sleet line was supposed to stall out for a while once it reached Sandy Hook. It's already behind schedule along the Jersey shore.
  5. Gravity Wave
    Finally back home in the UES, moderate snow sticking to everything except main avenues. Looks like the good stuff will come in around 7.
  6. Gravity Wave
    Really looking like the NAM was too aggressive with the WAA push. We just need it to hold off until the dry slot moves in, then the winds will shift shortly afterwards.
  7. Gravity Wave
    Apparently it's still snow in Toms River, can't be bad news for us...
  8. Gravity Wave
    Really starting to come down now in Midtown.
  9. Gravity Wave
    Flakes are flying in Midtown, where I'm waiting alone in my office for my incompetent colleagues to send me revised documents to mail out "before the storm."
  10. Gravity Wave
    Models are really starting to catch on to the enhanced banding for NYC and the coast Thursday morning; the precip minima that was over the city in yesterday afternoon's model runs has moved west to WNJ and far eastern PA.
  11. Gravity Wave
    That banding close to the surface low after the front end comes through (and the upper air temps associated with it) are going to determine what kind of storm this is for the area, because i don't think the decaying CCB on the back side is going to give us more than an inch or two. If it's strong like on the GFS we're on track for over a foot, if not I'm thinking 8 inches is the target.
  12. Gravity Wave
    Euro is really nice for most, 12-18 for everyone except the Jersey coast.
  13. Gravity Wave
    The 3km NAM is going to give us some delicious runs starting tonight.
  14. Gravity Wave
    The NAM verbatim takes the main precip shield north of the city after the initial thump, but it's still adjusting south.
  15. Gravity Wave
    Surface is nice and cold on the NAM, but 850s get close to zero for the I-78 corridor east to the City early in the storm. Something to watch on meso models.
  16. Gravity Wave
    Subsidence can indeed happen anywhere, but that includes the areas north and west of the main deform band which can sometimes accentuate the northern/western cutoff, a la January 2016 and BDB.
  17. Gravity Wave
    You always have to take this account if you're near the northern or western fringe with big, dynamic storms. Sometimes everything works out, but the subsidence from the deform band is rarely handled well, even by many of the mesos.
  18. Gravity Wave
    Wouldn't take much of a shift to put the city on the core of the deform band. The mesos will be key starting tomorrow.
  19. Gravity Wave
    Euro is clearly improved, although it still tries to hold the heaviest precip back across PA. Not a huge deal given its low resolution.
  20. Gravity Wave
    Ukie has consistently had the least impressive jackpot totals. I wonder if that's a function of the snow depth maps, because it certainly isn't spitting out less QPF than the other models.
  21. Gravity Wave
    If I had to pick a way this goes wrong for the City I think it would be in the form of the GFS (heavy precip going south of the area) rather than the NAM (mixing issues and deform band well to the north), but I think we're in an excellent spot right now.
  22. Gravity Wave
    The Euro and CMC closed off the system on Friday IIRC, interesting to see that potential re-emerge.
  23. Gravity Wave
    2009-2010 had several storm that did that, December 18-19, February 5-6 and February 10-11 all had brutal northern cutoffs, although the cutoff line moved north each time.
  24. Gravity Wave
    If the final solution splits the difference between the GFS, Euro and CMC then the City should do extremely well.
  25. Gravity Wave
    Nothing to see here, just the UKIE dropping 2" of liquid equivalent for the City and the coast:
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