Rtd208

Just had a brief shower move thru otherwise its pretty uncomfortable out there. Current temp 78/DP 68/RH 60%

Just had a brief shower move thru otherwise its pretty uncomfortable out there. Current temp 78/DP 68/RH 60%

The entire week should feature several bouts of heavy rain/severe weather, some days more then others.

It would not surprise me to see the slight risk area expanded and shifted north. Whether the NYC metro area makes it into the slight risk is another story but at the very least the marginal should hold serve.

Definitely a bit more uncomfortable out there this morning. Current temp 75/DP 64/RH 63%

Definitely a bit more uncomfortable out there this morning. Current temp 75/DP 64/RH 63%

The 18z GFS looks very wet over the next several days. The 18z NAM catching on a bit as well. The upcoming week should have several bouts of heavy rain/severe weather. We could see some showers and maybe storms move thru overnight before things really start to ramp up tomorrow and continue thru most if not all of the upcoming week.

The 18z GFS looks very wet over the next several days. The 18z NAM catching on a bit as well. The upcoming week should have several bouts of heavy rain/severe weather. We could see some showers and maybe storms move thru overnight before things really start to ramp up tomorrow and continue thru most if not all of the upcoming week.

I actually would have thought the dew point and humidity would have started to rise by now but it has stayed pretty low this afternoon making for a nice day. Current temp 84/DP 53/RH 32%

I actually would have thought the dew point and humidity would have started to rise by now but it has stayed pretty low this afternoon making for a nice day. Current temp 84/DP 53/RH 32%

Not to bad out currently but the dew point/humidity should continue to rise thru the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight which should begin a wet and stormy period for the next several days. Current temp 77/DP 56/RH 41%

Not to bad out currently but the dew point/humidity should continue to rise thru the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight which should begin a wet and stormy period for the next several days. Current temp 77/DP 56/RH 41%

Quite the discussion from Mt.Holly ref late weekend/next week. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... So it continues. A stormy period looks to be taking shape Sunday through Friday. The Mid-Atlantic continues to be sandwiched in between the mid-level high to our south and the mid-level low to our north. In between, a somewhat zonal flow this week with a handful of fast moving perturbations. Latest model runs have consistently shown a front approaching the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and Monday before stalling it near or in the area for the rest of the week. The forecast problem comes down to timing the best chances for convection in this regime, which is tied to low-amplitude (and likely convectively-generated/maintained) perturbations moving eastward in the quasi-zonal mid/upper flow across the eastern U.S. throughout this period. Unfortunately, this is of low predictability, with models once again exhibiting variations run to run and model to model. Thus, the approach for the medium-range forecast remains the same: higher-than-climatology PoPs for most of the period and near to slightly above average temperatures. In general, the updated forecast is quite close to continuity. The main changes are with the Sunday/Monday forecast, where models are showing slow convergence on the convective evolution. The aforementioned cold front will be approaching the lower Great Lakes east-northeast to northern/central New England on Sunday, with several weak perturbations moving west-to-east near the boundary. Convection should readily develop along/downstream of the front by afternoon, mainly to our north/west but probably also in our CWA as well. The 00z GFS is depicting a stronger vort max approaching the northern Mid-Atlantic during the evening, with a round of strong/widespread convection in our area by this time. The 00z ECMWF is fairly similar, which provided enough confidence to raise PoPs to high-chance and even likely in northern portions of the CWA Sunday afternoon/night. Precipitation will wane late Sunday night as nocturnal stabilization takes over and the strongest large-scale lift moves to our east. The CAPE/shear parameter space would be sufficient for severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening, and I am rather concerned the GFS is underdoing instability in the pre-frontal warm sector given increasingly warm/moist conditions. Moreover, BUFKIT soundings/hodographs suggest a substantial amount of low-level shear/helicity may exist. Will need to watch Sunday afternoon/night closely for the severe-weather threat in the coming days. After perhaps a brief reprieve late Sunday night into Monday morning, chances of strong convection return Monday afternoon. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF depict another strong perturbation moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. Once again, the CAPE/shear parameter space is favorable for severe storms, though shear may be somewhat weaker than the previous day. However, the pre-frontal warm sector may be more unstable (using model sounding comparisons Sunday versus Monday). Complications from antecedent convection will exist (increasing the uncertainty in the forecast by this point), not to mention the model volatility already in place with the perturbations responsible for the larger-scale lift associated with the convection. Nevertheless, I am becoming quite concerned with the severe threat both of these days, and hydro issues will be an increasing concern as well given the multiple rounds of storms that may affect the area. Speaking of, the forecast does not look much better Tuesday onward. Models show little southward progress of the front and more low- amplitude perturbations affecting the region the rest of the week. Variability in timing/track of these vorticity maxima is quite high during this period, but the pattern is certainly suggestive of a stormy period...with hydrologic concerns only increasing if such a pattern were to verify. && Upton: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main story of the long term will be with a frontal boundary that approaches on Sunday and then likely stalls over the Tri-State on Monday. This front may linger near the region through the rest of the week. Confidence in the exact location of the front remains uncertain later in the week, with the best consensus of model data indicating the front remains near the region. The 12z ensemble means continue to show an upper level low over southeast Canada on Sunday becoming mostly locked in place through the middle of next week. This is due to a blocking pattern at higher latitudes. Ridging sets up over the western Atlantic through the week. The surface frontal boundary will become nearly stationary near the region next week between the upper low to the north and western Atlantic ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday afternoon and evening as the front nears. Shortwave energy appears weak so have capped PoPs off at 50 percent. A little better defined shortwave and frontal wave is progged to move through late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Have increased PoPs to likely based on some better support aloft (shortwave energy) as well as some continuity among the models with the frontal wave. With the front near the region on Tuesday, the chance for showers and possible storms continues. Guidance over the last several runs has hinted that the front may try to sink south on Wednesday. Have not completely gone dry yet as this may be too aggressive. Unsettled weather may continue for the end of the week. A more well defined shortwave is currently indicated by the GFS/ECMWF/CMC to act on the front to bring precipitation late Thursday into Friday. While the long term looks unsettled, there will be periods of dry conditions and periods of precipitation. The exact timing remains uncertain. Temperatures through the long term will average near to slightly above normal. &&

Quite the discussion from Mt.Holly ref late weekend/next week. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... So it continues. A stormy period looks to be taking shape Sunday through Friday. The Mid-Atlantic continues to be sandwiched in between the mid-level high to our south and the mid-level low to our north. In between, a somewhat zonal flow this week with a handful of fast moving perturbations. Latest model runs have consistently shown a front approaching the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and Monday before stalling it near or in the area for the rest of the week. The forecast problem comes down to timing the best chances for convection in this regime, which is tied to low-amplitude (and likely convectively-generated/maintained) perturbations moving eastward in the quasi-zonal mid/upper flow across the eastern U.S. throughout this period. Unfortunately, this is of low predictability, with models once again exhibiting variations run to run and model to model. Thus, the approach for the medium-range forecast remains the same: higher-than-climatology PoPs for most of the period and near to slightly above average temperatures. In general, the updated forecast is quite close to continuity. The main changes are with the Sunday/Monday forecast, where models are showing slow convergence on the convective evolution. The aforementioned cold front will be approaching the lower Great Lakes east-northeast to northern/central New England on Sunday, with several weak perturbations moving west-to-east near the boundary. Convection should readily develop along/downstream of the front by afternoon, mainly to our north/west but probably also in our CWA as well. The 00z GFS is depicting a stronger vort max approaching the northern Mid-Atlantic during the evening, with a round of strong/widespread convection in our area by this time. The 00z ECMWF is fairly similar, which provided enough confidence to raise PoPs to high-chance and even likely in northern portions of the CWA Sunday afternoon/night. Precipitation will wane late Sunday night as nocturnal stabilization takes over and the strongest large-scale lift moves to our east. The CAPE/shear parameter space would be sufficient for severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening, and I am rather concerned the GFS is underdoing instability in the pre-frontal warm sector given increasingly warm/moist conditions. Moreover, BUFKIT soundings/hodographs suggest a substantial amount of low-level shear/helicity may exist. Will need to watch Sunday afternoon/night closely for the severe-weather threat in the coming days. After perhaps a brief reprieve late Sunday night into Monday morning, chances of strong convection return Monday afternoon. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF depict another strong perturbation moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. Once again, the CAPE/shear parameter space is favorable for severe storms, though shear may be somewhat weaker than the previous day. However, the pre-frontal warm sector may be more unstable (using model sounding comparisons Sunday versus Monday). Complications from antecedent convection will exist (increasing the uncertainty in the forecast by this point), not to mention the model volatility already in place with the perturbations responsible for the larger-scale lift associated with the convection. Nevertheless, I am becoming quite concerned with the severe threat both of these days, and hydro issues will be an increasing concern as well given the multiple rounds of storms that may affect the area. Speaking of, the forecast does not look much better Tuesday onward. Models show little southward progress of the front and more low- amplitude perturbations affecting the region the rest of the week. Variability in timing/track of these vorticity maxima is quite high during this period, but the pattern is certainly suggestive of a stormy period...with hydrologic concerns only increasing if such a pattern were to verify. && Upton: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main story of the long term will be with a frontal boundary that approaches on Sunday and then likely stalls over the Tri-State on Monday. This front may linger near the region through the rest of the week. Confidence in the exact location of the front remains uncertain later in the week, with the best consensus of model data indicating the front remains near the region. The 12z ensemble means continue to show an upper level low over southeast Canada on Sunday becoming mostly locked in place through the middle of next week. This is due to a blocking pattern at higher latitudes. Ridging sets up over the western Atlantic through the week. The surface frontal boundary will become nearly stationary near the region next week between the upper low to the north and western Atlantic ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday afternoon and evening as the front nears. Shortwave energy appears weak so have capped PoPs off at 50 percent. A little better defined shortwave and frontal wave is progged to move through late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Have increased PoPs to likely based on some better support aloft (shortwave energy) as well as some continuity among the models with the frontal wave. With the front near the region on Tuesday, the chance for showers and possible storms continues. Guidance over the last several runs has hinted that the front may try to sink south on Wednesday. Have not completely gone dry yet as this may be too aggressive. Unsettled weather may continue for the end of the week. A more well defined shortwave is currently indicated by the GFS/ECMWF/CMC to act on the front to bring precipitation late Thursday into Friday. While the long term looks unsettled, there will be periods of dry conditions and periods of precipitation. The exact timing remains uncertain. Temperatures through the long term will average near to slightly above normal. &&

Picked up 0.92" of rain for the day 0.60" this morning and an additional 0.32" this evening. Current temp 61

Picked up 0.92" of rain for the day 0.60" this morning and an additional 0.32" this evening. Current temp 61

Pouring here again.

Pouring here again.

Pretty good slug for rain/storms moving into the NYC metro.

Pretty good slug for rain/storms moving into the NYC metro.

Mt.Holly was hinting at that in their discussion basically saying that flooding concerns for next week could go beyond the typical nuisance type flooding depending how things play out.

Picked up 0.60" of rain so far today. Current temp 68

Picked up 0.60" of rain so far today. Current temp 68

Pouring here.

Pouring here.