Rtd208

Tomorrow and Saturday we should have a better chance for showers/storms producing heavy rainfall. The severe threat will probably be on the lower side but there is the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding.

Current temp 89/DP 61/RH 37%

Current temp 89/DP 61/RH 37%

High for the day today was 90 here. Current temp 82/DP 72/RH 70%

High for the day today was 90 here. Current temp 82/DP 72/RH 70%

Current temp 88/DP 70/RH 54%

Current temp 88/DP 70/RH 54%

Warm and muggy night out there. Current temp 76/DP 70/RH 81% High for the day yesterday was 91

Warm and muggy night out there. Current temp 76/DP 70/RH 81% High for the day yesterday was 91

The dewpoint has really come up here, currently 75

The dewpoint has really come up here, currently 75

Current temp 89/DP 69/RH 48%

Current temp 89/DP 69/RH 48%

Current temp 87/DP 60/RH 35%

Current temp 87/DP 60/RH 35%

Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms. Mt.Holly: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Synoptic Overview: The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US. Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries. Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow). Dailies: Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds. Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing. Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees warmer than Monday with winds remaining light. Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM (therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the coast and higher elevation areas. Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2 inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side (after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure. && Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and Northeast. Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach 95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru Saturday. Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold front, but low predictability this far out. &&

Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms. Mt.Holly: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Synoptic Overview: The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US. Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries. Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow). Dailies: Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds. Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing. Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees warmer than Monday with winds remaining light. Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM (therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the coast and higher elevation areas. Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2 inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side (after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure. && Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and Northeast. Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach 95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru Saturday. Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold front, but low predictability this far out. &&

Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms. Mt.Holly: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Synoptic Overview: The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US. Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries. Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow). Dailies: Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds. Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing. Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees warmer than Monday with winds remaining light. Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM (therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the coast and higher elevation areas. Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2 inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side (after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure. && Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and Northeast. Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach 95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru Saturday. Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold front, but low predictability this far out. &&

One of the craziest storms in a while here. Had winds of 50+ mph w/heavy rain, also alot of tree branches down in town with some wires down/power outages etc. High for the day was 94,picked up 0.57" of rain so far today. Current temp 70/DP 69/RH 95%

One of the craziest storms in a while here. Had winds of 50+ mph w/heavy rain, also alot of tree branches down in town with some wires down/power outages etc. High for the day was 94,picked up 0.57" of rain so far today. Current temp 70/DP 69/RH 95%

Wow crazy winds/rain here.

Under a warning here.

Philly, S NJ has been the super hot spot for storms so far this season.

Storms popping in NW NJ as well so the NYC metro should get some storms over the next hour or two.

Current temp up to 94 here.