Chicago WX

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

DAB++

Indeed. Still coming down at a good clip here. Flake size is pretty good. Looks really nice. 

Coming down hot and heavy here right now. 18z NAM says we get nothing. What a POS model. 

Looks like a DAB at best for here with today’s snow. Was hoping for a little uptick, but not seeing it. Should be some decent mood snows at the least...

Fairly good agreement on a track near or north of I-80, at this time. ORD to GRB is probably a good guess for a zone of heavier snows right now. For us south of the track, time to close the shades. Maybe peek out on Sunday afternoon or evening, just to make sure. Alas, hopefully rainfall here is light. Don’t want a repeat of the last event here. 

But for real, I agree with Andy’s last post in the other thread. Think there’s more potential with this system. We watch and wait...

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

18z GFS is a bit north.

StormChaser4Life just threw his computer out the window.

Models weren't spitting out these kind of crazy numbers back in Jan 2014, were they? I know they were showing big time cold, but I don't recall this insanity. 

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Snowing at a decent clip here.

Here too. Really came down for a time. Roads went to hell quickly.

Hoping to squeeze out 1-2" tomorrow.

Exact details are foolish to worry about at this range. Just worry if there will be a storm at this point. And the 12z GGEM, as worthless as it is, is a crusher.

6 minutes ago, King James said:

Wife stayed in the city last night, working now in the Joliet area. Really just want her home safe tonight. Told her to do 30mph the whole way home

This is all has taken me by surprise really. Didn’t think it would be this bad. Hope she gets home safely.

I was out running some errands and am amazed how all the side streets (non-treated) around here are still fairly ice covered. This with above freezing temps overnight and this morning. Great example of antecedent conditions doing some work. Cold coming back in now. Going to be a fooking disaster with all the standing water. 

So looking back at the guidance from 3-4 days ago...the Euro, Goofy twins, and Canadian cousins all get F's with their performance of this storm. The Ukie sniffed out the southern trend, yet again. And I guess the NAM's, for the most part.

EDIT: actual track went from STL to IKK. The bad models had it thru E IA/NW IL (and further NW with some of the GFS runs) for quite a bit of time.

MLI up to 37.6" for the season, thru 6:00 AM this morning. 50"+ season looks very doable/probable...which would make for a top 10 all timer. 

1) 69.7" in 1974-75

2) 65.1" in 2013-14

3) 64.0" in 1978-79

4) 61.5" in 1959-60

5) 59.1" in 1996-97

6) 54.1" in 1971-72

7) 51.5" in 2007-08

8) 51.4" in 1911-12

9) 51.2" in 1969-70

10) 49.3" in 1925-26

2 minutes ago, King James said:

Rained all night. It’s an absolute mess of ice, snow, and ponding out my way. Not even going to try the roads today. Sump pump kicking on every 5 minutes. Just awful

Just wait until it all freezes up again...

I'm kinda surprised how much ice is still on the pavement this morning. Truly truly a big mess, and only will get worse.

5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

how much snow do you still have on the ground....alot of this liquid will  absorb/freeze into the snowpack increasing the snow water equivalent

with the cold and  clipper pattern the next 2 weeks it will continue to add to it....(worried about IL river flooding down the road, family members get flooded out....)

About 4” in my yard. It’s got a nice firm crust on top right now. Hopefully temps don’t get too out of hand overnight...might as well have a glacier. 

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Walking around outside is an absolute disaster.  Feet slid repeatedly despite moving very slowly.  I feel bad for anyone who is at higher risk of falling.

You better believe it. Worst conditions I've worked in yet. Sidewalks, porches, side streets...just a total sh*t show. And it got worse when it got dark. There is no accrual on cars or trees, but with the ground being cold...it's just adding to ground conditions being an ice rink. And all this crap is gonna freeze hard tomorrow. FML.  

Just now, Hoosier said:

Do you happen to have a bank clock nearby by any chance?

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

33 at Kankakee and Pontiac. 

I wouldn’t be using IKK, ever. Light rain still freezing on contact here. Untreated sidewalks and roads are a skating rink. Trust me, I’m out in it. 

33 minutes ago, King James said:

Wife has a conference in the Loop (Chicago) today and ends at 4:30pm. We are down in eastern Kankakee county. I know you all can only answer the best you can, but is this a situation where I should be getting her a hotel room? She will be driving

Think we are pretty much in the clear here are far as any wintry precipitation, but heavy rain will be a concern. Just to our north will be a different story. Probably best to play it safe for her. 

NAMs are a 33˚ and rainer here, while the Euro torches into the mid 40's. Either way, a lose lose. Going to be a mess with all this rainfall falling on top of the snowpack. Might need to make a few posts in the complaint thread soon...

12z Ukie went south. Takes the low over LAF. 99% wrong most likely, but kinda funny.

26 minutes ago, King James said:

Getting a few flurries down in eastern kankakee county.  Guessing it's a bit of lake influence 

IKK gets LES, but it's usually lighter by the time it gets here. Sloppy seconds I like to call it.  Eastern half of the county tends to do better, which I believe is where you're located...right? Best LES event I can recall around here was in the winter of 2013-14. Streamer rode I-57, dropping 4". Of course all it did was snow that winter. 

I hate to "bash", but  at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. 

Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals. 

Too much HRRR/RAP love. Those models are crap in their long range.

Goal posts for the big snows is between I-80 and the first two rows of southern WI. Seems these set ups like to inch north at game time, but not always. I’d feel pretty good if I was sitting in and around the E/W Tollway. 

cyclone closing in on his 3rd 6"+ storm of the winter. And another one possibly coming next week? Whatever he's doing, he's doing it right. Pretty amazing. 

Low confidence call of 2-4" for MBY. Much more confident on the 2 than the 4. Hopefully don't have to downgrade...