jlauderdal

2 is far more likely than 4 at this point

This afternoon if this trend continues, there shouldn't be a wsw just because of holiday travel....i could make case there are more people travelling around northern illinois on a normal workday then during the holiday when people are sitting at home on their arse hitting refresh on this board..

The WSW for northern illinois is in jeopardy to be honest. Good Luck the rest of the season, my trip to to chgo appears to be with limited fanfare and thats ok...hurricane season is right around the corner, lol. The trend is definitely not Northern Illinois' friend. BTW, this is why the hurricane center never deviates from their watch/warning criteria regardless of holidays or other subjective criteria, its all science and zero deviation ever. They do have a "Potential Tropical Cyclone" package at their disposal for situations where it hasn't developed but has shot at hitting land. Potential Winter Storm would have been good for LOT yesterday. A high wind event isnt a Winter Storm and that's where this heading.

1-4 with blowing snow for the LOT service area, happy holidays from santa claus

The blend is finally in control...i thought a track could be nailed tomorrow night but tomorrow morning looking realistic..i think we see a nudge to the east, SW lower michigan looks real good right now

I said considering the pressure gradiant, snow amounts will be weak in most areas but you put big winds on a few inches of snow you get black ice, power outages, etc.

Seems like a win for a big chunk of this sub considering the pressure gradient. If two weeks ago i said he you get a white xmas and 50 mph winds, you would have been doing back flips.

The Ukie was outstanding with Ian, a rare win but in a very complex setup

The GFS doing GFS things, euro and gfs will be in sync by tomorrow night...SLP east of chicago, Lower michigan gets drilled

Remember when the New England sub thought they were in it

rain and slush then 10 below zero, enjoy

Mystery met taking a blend and thats a good idea at this time....his track makes sense although DET seems to far east(splitting hairs) for the actual COC.

Yep, I would think by midday tomorrow we can hit the track with a 50 mile error on either side out to 48 hours..something to the right of the latest gfs and to the left of the latest euro...starting to look like more of a wind event than a blockbuster precip but you get a big multiplier effect when you include the high winds which this one will produce

The euro and gfs were consistent with Ian and were both wrong inside of 24 hours, gfs did very well with Nicole....dont give up because these models aren't giving you what you want...the amount of gfs runs that get tossed with even well developed tropical systems would make your head spin...euro is far more consistent thus less runs tossed but of course consistency can also be consistently wrong through the life of a system....Madison to Detroit are in play for the jackpot, lets see if the gfs settles down today

Thursday am is unlikely to go, im flying in weds morn, that might not go

The happy hour gfs going with more intensity, need to stop the westaward movement for the naperville crush job

150 probably a bridge too far..that said this is a very large system so everyone is going to see action and plenty of it, a complete crush job on naperville, il weds night thur friday would be ideal and then my exit on saturday

Heading from Florida on weds, this thing better deliver.

Its 2 ft plus for the new england sub to keep them happy

Its been nice here, finally cooled off. Im heading to chicago next weds, my timing looks good. Two tropical systems and an arctic blast to close out the year.

Palms like a break from the heat, 40s for awhile are good.

I'm coming up next Weds and it looks real cold but real dry, it needs to 28 and real moist.

Its a prime area for deveolpment this time of year. There is euro support too.

The long term motion isnt going to be NE, yet. However, lets see what happens once it clears cuba, land masses(mountainous terrain not required) in the tropics can do strange things to deep tropical systems with intensity and thus steering.

That map isn't going to verify for SEFL. There is already 2-4 in the bucket and we are just getting started.