thewxmann

In an event like this, deaths are inevitable. Some people can't heed the warnings because they live in a mobile home and dont have any mobility. Others are just unlikely - debris can blow into a basement and trap/kill an occupant. Think about all the places hit today... Tuscaloosa Huntsville N Birmingham Newton Hackelburg Phil Campbell Add to this list pls...

^Thank you for the HTX response.. BMX is back btw

What happened to HTX? Sorry, I'm at lab right now, kinda out of the loop

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL LAWRENCE...SOUTH CENTRAL COLBERT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES... ...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY... AT 324 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR HACKLEBURG. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BELGREEN...PHIL CAMPBELL...SPRUCE PINE... ROCKWOOD... ISBELL...RUSSELLVILLE...CROOKED OAK...PLEASANT RIDGE... THARPTOWN...NEWBURG...LITTLEVILLE...COLBERT HEIGHTS...MT HOPE...LA GRANGE...SPRING VALLEY AND LANDERSVILLE.

I'm in class so I couldn't open the video. Hopefully someone posts it on YT...

Red's been issued once before, on 4/7/06. They will issue the red if multiple tornadoes have been dropped down and are dropping down at 20Z. Prolly won't issue it before hand though.

Another fatality in St. Clair County from (what else?) tree falling on mobile home, per LSR's. That makes it 5 from overnight.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 642 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES... AT 634 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED MULTIPLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS NEAR GUNTERSVILLE AND ARAB. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN ARAB. THESE TORNADOES WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GRANT...PAINT ROCK...WOODVILLE...LANGSTON...LIM ROCK...SECTION... LARKINSVILLE AND SCOTTSBORO.

Hey thanks for the support Fred... I know you are definitely doing your best to inform the people on the other forums... and that of course requires a different approach than informally chatting about this. You do bring up a good point that initiation is easier to do on a W-E boundary. Not only do mixed layers propagate W-E and thus can overspread a N-S boundary, LLJ trajectories often lie more orthogonal to E-W boundaries which maximizes forcing there. But I'm still a little cautious. Nevertheless, I believe it forcing was only a small part of the equation these past few days, as the weak low-lvl flow today and higher LCL heights yesterday were bigger factors. However, it would've been better for the storms to have more separation in either case... especially since a less contaminated warm sector would've supported damaging tornadoes as the low-lvl flow strengthened and LCL heights lowered in the late evening. My point overall was trying to illustrate that forcing could potentially go wrong given the strong dynamics of this system and the weak capping north of the AL-TN state line. And yes, I'm a big proponent of the synoptic-driving mesoscale approach, which is why tomorrow should not be a total bust, and that at the very least we ought to see a MDT-sized outbreak. I'm just bearish on this being a very large, damaging outbreak, but of course I'm not saying it won't happen either. (And yes, I really thought AL on 4/24 was a bust by late afternoon, very surprised when I logged on that night and saw that a last round of sups initiated and dropped those damaging tornadoes.)

Good points. I am by no means saying tomorrow will not be a big outbreak - there is definitely a high likelihood that it will be. All I am saying that with all the small mesoscale things that have gone "wrong" these past few days, it might pay to be cautious, especially since everyone is on the same bandwagon right now. Yeah day 1/2 doesn't affect day 3, but it is a good reminder of what can possibly go "right"/"wrong", and it is true that forcing has been stronger and initiation earlier than predicted on each of the days. Since tomorrow's event is associated with the main energy, it is logical to believe that forcing will be even stronger, and so we can make very crude comparisons with these past couple of days. And I am somewhat concerned about the high temperatures across the SE tomorrow... LCLs will not be very favorable if temperatures rise above MOS guidance. And we all have to consider what if destabilization doesn't occur in time if forcing maintains numerous convection over the relatively uncapped areas of the TN Valley. Anyway, just offering a second opinion here, since I've been hearing "big outbreak" across the boards from almost everyone in the know. Certainly not ignoring that, but as always convection is convection... and I always start with the philosophy of finding things that could go wrong. I usu don't post it when everyone has a shared consensus (for obvious reasons, as seen in earlier posts in this thread), but psychologically I do feel more bearish than usual on a forecast if the latest High risk just underperformed. And you are one of the best so of course I know you are not trying to hype things up. It is justified for sure. However with a setup that looks extremely good on paper, with numerous forecasts out there talking about an outbreak... it won't take much "letdown" for forecasts to be seen as overblown... .thus reason why I am bearish.

Normally I would agree but the capping gradient is much stronger than it is today and the LCL's are, as usual, a little high as you go south. Ironically it will end up being greatest discrete supercell potential south of a Huntsville-Decatur line, but greatest tornado threat north. The narrow area where the two overlap slightly may end up being the "sweet spot" where the full potential of the parameters may be most well tapped. P.S. the NAM shows a nice cold-pool stabilized region in ctrl TN at 18Z tomorrow...

I dunno, I'm a little doubtful of tomorrow. The parameters yesterday and today were pretty impressive, but both days ended up underperforming somewhat (with the exception of that freak AR tornado). In both cases, it is MHO that more tornadoes would've occurred if there weren't as many storms interfering with each other. Well, tomorrow's forcing is even stronger. Unlike the last storm, this one hasn't been a really prolific tornado producer. I could definitely see a outbreak occurring tomorrow, but I'd be a little more bearish than usual... there has been a lot of strong wording thrown around with this system that hasn't really come to fruition yet.

Chill out dude. Tomorrow will not be armageddon.

Oh my gawd please not this discussion with the Super Outbreak. The Super Outbreak was a once in a century-millennium event - one would need overwhelmingly compelling evidence to even bring it up in a severe discussion...

Wow, has a MDT on Day 1, 2, AND 3 ever happened before?

Gotcha. What I really meant was a "convective response", which you alluded to in earlier posts. Thanks for the clarification.

Obv convective feedback induced, but that 75kt at H85 is nonetheless impressive. 1000 m2s-2 0-3 helicity to boot. I've just never seen a hodograph that was literally "off the charts" on twisterdata like that.

lol... off the charts anyone?

I agree that Tuesday has the highest bust potential, but IMO Monday has the better likelihood of discrete tornadic supercells, as the forcing might be too linear on Wed (this, of course, still up for grabs, depending on how the energy ultimately evolves and amplifies). All else equal though, yes Tues and Wed are likely to be more widespread. Still lots of uncertainty on the tornado side of things, however.

I don't know if I'm missing something, but I think all three days are equally dangerous at this point, and that any one of the three days could end up being the "lesser" day. Especially since the GFS/NAM trended stronger with the lead system and more delayed with the "main" system, just as the lead energy came onshore this morning.

Yep, the models have been hinting at this, overall a weaker Day 1 and stronger Day 2. It'll be interesting to see how this all evolves b/c the solns (well, the GFS one at least), as they are right now, point to WNW flow over the warm sector due to the geometry of the amplifying trough. I don't think I've ever seen that in an April setup (west of the Apps).

The SPC usually plays very conservative on their 4-8 day outlooks. The models have been waffling back and forth. Really what they're saying is not "we're not expecting sig svr at XXX location", but "we're not confident enough to outline XXX area".